Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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585 FXUS62 KILM 201950 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 350 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A stray shower or storm is possible this afternoon across southeast North Carolina. Forecast dries out completely just in time for the weekend, with high pressure dominating. Temperatures linger near or just above seasonal norms through early next week. Next appreciable rain chances look to return by the middle of next week with the next frontal system. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Weak high pressure basically east of the Appalachians remains in control this afternoon although the overall column continues to show some decent moisture. This led to good coverage of fog and stratus this morning and should do so once again Saturday. A few showers have/are developing just to the north of the area and added some minimal pops for a handful of hours this afternoon to address. Moisture decreases further Saturday and hopefully the weakly forced showers won`t develop. Tonight`s lows will be in the middle 60s with highs Saturday similar to today`s values in the middle 80s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... No major forecast changes but have slightly increased rain chances late Sunday into Sunday night over SE NC. We`ll be sitting in largely northerly flow coming down and around the mountains when a shortwave looks to push through late Sunday. The issue will be the dry mid-levels, so have increased chances but still kept areas over land dry. Could see this changing with future updates, but not expecting large rainfall totals regardless. Otherwise, should see some warming ahead of this disturbance with highs Sunday getting into the mid to upper 80s. Lows Saturday night will be in the low to mid 60s with slight warming and increasing cloud cover leading to lows in the mid to upper 60s Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Conditions should remain quiet under ridging high pressure until the middle of next week where moisture starts to increase due to a frontal system to our west. Regardless of when the front from this system reaches the area, expecting increasing rain chances and warming temperatures ahead of it. Guidance remains messy with the area of development in the Caribbean and even moreso with the disturbance behind it. To put something out there, ensembles seem to be agreeing that there will be some area of low pressure of questionable strength nearing or around the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the long term period, but this could change with subsequent updates to the forecast. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Overall pattern both synoptic and mesoscale both similar to this time yesterday and have used these trends for the forecast. This yields VFR well into the evening hours with fog then developing. Expect IFR inland with MVFR along the coast although considering this morning`s observations IFR may indeed develop along the coast as well. Extended Outlook...Mainly dry with VFR conditions, but early morning MVFR/IFR cannot be ruled out at times. && .MARINE... Through Saturday...Persistent conditions across the coastal waters tonight and Saturday. Winds will be from the north in a range of 10-15 knots. Significant seas will be 2-3 feet for the most part but may see a slight increase later Saturday with 2-4 feet. Saturday Night through Wednesday...Winds will generally be E/NE becoming more onshore in the afternoons with the sea breeze, speeds in the 10-15 kt range. Waveheights generally 2-3 ft with some 4 footers possible ~20 nm out from the SE NC coast. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Coastal flooding remains a threat through the weekend with high astronomical tides and a modest northeast flow. The beaches seem secure for advisory criteria while downtown Wilmington may reach warning criteria another cycle or two. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 3 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ107-109. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...LEW LONG TERM...LEW AVIATION...SHK MARINE...SHK/LEW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...