448
FXUS62 KILM 201721
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
121 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm and mainly dry conditions will continue into
tonight. Onshore movement of showers and possibly a
thunderstorm late tonight into Friday as a result of low
pressure tracking across the SW Atlantic, that eventually moves
onshore well south of the area. Warming trend begins Saturday,
with an extended period of heat, humidity, and diurnal
convection forecasted through middle of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes needed to the previous forecast. Radar shows
some light showers building back up offshore but model guidance
suggests they won`t make it to shore except possibly Georgetown
Co later this afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today will be a persistence day with highs generally a repeat
of Wed as high pressure aloft keeps enough subsidence across the
FA keeping a lid on any widespread convection. Still may
observe isolated showers move onshore, now thru late this
morning before dissipating the further they move inland.
However, will observe additional stratocu/cu clouds moving
onshore, especially later tonight or during the overnight
period. This a result of the tropical wave/Low pressure tracking
W to WNW across the Southeast U.S. Atlantic waters, that will
reach the offshore and possibly the coastal waters off FL/GA by
Fri daytime morning. Pops will be included for the late
overnight period as the pcpn activity pinwheels counterclockwise
ahead of the low, reaching the ILM SC Coast and partially
inland late in the pre-dawn Fri hrs. Highs today low to mid 80s
at the coast to the upper 80s to lower 90s inland, following
close to the NBM numbers given its decent max temp performance
of late. Tonights lows, widespread 60s to around 70 at the
immediate coast given onshore flow across SSTs in the 70s to
around 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Low level trough will be inland near coastal GA early Friday.
Moisture extending north from the trough will move into our
coastal areas during the day. Subsidence from mid-upper ridge
centered to the west and north will limit inland (and northern)
extent of any convection Friday midday and afternoon. Have
increased pops slightly, with 30-40% chance across coastal NE SC
and generally below 20% north of US-76. Friday might be our
last day with near normal temperatures for a while as a
prolonged warming trend begins Saturday with WAA around Bermuda
high. Subsidence weakens a bit Saturday, with best chance for
afternoon convection across southwestern counties of the CWA.
High temps climb into the mid 90s away from the coast Saturday
with low temps in the low 70s Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Extended period of heat, humidity, and diurnal convection
forecasted beginning Sunday. Piedmont trough present Sunday and
Monday with a weakening front approaching Tuesday. High
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s inland forecasted for each
day (Sunday - Wednesday), with near 90F along the coast, will
combine with elevated dewpoints to bring potential heat advisory
conditions particularly Sunday and Monday. Low temps each night
in the low to mid 70s. Highest pops are currently during the
day Monday (~50%) as an upper trough may help initiate
convection (along with aforementioned Piedmont trough and sea
breeze), though strength and timing of trough is uncertain. Some
dry air aloft will lessen storm coverage Tuesday and Wednesday
to perhaps widely scattered.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High confidence in generally VFR conditions through 18Z Friday.
MVFR/possible IFR ceilings and vsbys from low clouds/fog are
possible late tonight, then MVFR ceilings/vsbys are possible
from ceilings/showers after about 12Z (mainly near the coast at
KILM/KCRE/KMYR). Otherwise, gusts will be near 20 kt, mainly
during the daytime near the coastal terminals.

Extended Outlook...VFR to prevail outside of the periodic
MVFR/IFR from diurnally-induced showers/storms and late night
low clouds/fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight...SCA raised for all waters for seas
periodically eclipsing 6 ft thru tonight. Overall seas 4 to 6 ft
thru the period and dominated by E to ESE wave at 7 to 8 second
periods. Sfc pg to slightly further tighten from south to
north, between high pressure to the north and the sfc low
heading toward the GA/FL Coasts. Looking at ENE-E winds around
15G20kt ILM NC waters and 15-20kt with possible G25kt ILM SC
Waters.

Friday through Monday...A surface trough moving inland across
GA on Friday will maintain easterly flow during the day, with
seas 4-5 ft slowly weakening during the day as prolonged ESE
swell begins to lessen. A prolonged period of south-southwest
winds over the coastal waters begins on Saturday and continues
into next week around Bermuda high pressure, with brief increase
in speeds to 15-20 kts on Monday. Seas 2-3 ft during the
weekend increase to 3-4 ft Monday, as building S wind wave joins
the weakening ESE swell. Moisture extending from the trough to
the south Friday will bring scattered thunderstorms to the
waters during the day. Overnight becomes the primary window for
convection of the waters Friday night into next week, with a
chance for daytime storms Monday with westerly storm motions and
upper level support.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: A building ESE swell and upcoming full
moon will maintain an elevated rip current risk for east and
southeast facing beaches in our area through (at least) Friday.
A high risk of rip currents is in effect today for Pender, New
Hanover, Horry, and Georgetown County beaches, as well as Ocean
Isle Beach west in Brunswick, with high rip risk potentially
continuing through Friday. The south facing beaches of Brunswick
county (east of Ocean Isle) will likely have strong east to
west longshore currents today, with a moderate risk of rip
currents due to strength of the swell - although longshore
current is expected to make rip current formation difficult.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ250-252-254-
     256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...VAO
UPDATE...RJB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...DCH/VAO
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...