Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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789 FXUS62 KILM 210153 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 953 PM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Forecast dries out completely just in time for the weekend, with high pressure dominating. Temperatures linger near or just above seasonal norms through early next week. Next appreciable rain chances look to return by the middle of next week with the next frontal system. && .UPDATE... Forecast updated to extend coastal flood headlines due to high confidence in reaching criteria midday tomorrow...moderate flooding near the WLON7 gauge and minor flooding along the beaches. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Weak high pressure basically east of the Appalachians remains in control this evening although the overall column continues to show some decent moisture. This led to good coverage of fog and stratus this morning and should do so once again Saturday. Moisture decreases further Saturday and weakly-forced showers are unlikely to develop. Tonight`s lows will be in the middle 60s with highs Saturday similar to today`s values in the middle 80s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... No major forecast changes but have slightly increased rain chances late Sunday into Sunday night over SE NC. We`ll be sitting in largely northerly flow coming down and around the mountains when a shortwave looks to push through late Sunday. The issue will be the dry mid-levels, so have increased chances but still kept areas over land dry. Could see this changing with future updates, but not expecting large rainfall totals regardless. Otherwise, should see some warming ahead of this disturbance with highs Sunday getting into the mid to upper 80s. Lows Saturday night will be in the low to mid 60s with slight warming and increasing cloud cover leading to lows in the mid to upper 60s Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Conditions should remain quiet under ridging high pressure until the middle of next week where moisture starts to increase due to a frontal system to our west. Regardless of when the front from this system reaches the area, expecting increasing rain chances and warming temperatures ahead of it. Guidance remains messy with the area of development in the Caribbean and even moreso with the disturbance behind it. To put something out there, ensembles seem to be agreeing that there will be some area of low pressure of questionable strength nearing or around the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the long term period, but this could change with subsequent updates to the forecast. && .AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Dry wx for the duration of the 00Z TAF period as sfc high pressure builds into the area. Fog or low stratus remains likely inland tonight, similar to last night, as conditions are quite similar in terms of light wind and small dewpoint depressions. Exception is the lack of rainfall today, so went a little less aggressive tonight with the IFR/MVFR conditions keeping them at only LBT/FLO, but will re-evaluate in future updates. Conditions improve to VFR everywhere into the day Saturday with light ENE wind. Extended Outlook...Dry through at least Tuesday with VFR conditions, but early morning MVFR/IFR cannot be ruled out at times. && .MARINE... Through Saturday...Persistent conditions across the coastal waters tonight and Saturday. Winds will be from the north in a range of 10-15 knots. Significant seas will be 2-3 feet for the most part but may see a slight increase later Saturday with 2-4 feet. Saturday Night through Wednesday...Winds will generally be E/NE becoming more onshore in the afternoons with the sea breeze, speeds in the 10-15 kt range. Waveheights generally 2-3 ft with some 4 footers possible ~20 nm out from the SE NC coast. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Coastal flooding remains a threat through the weekend into Monday with high astronomical tides and a modest northeast flow. The beaches seem secure for advisory criteria while downtown Wilmington may reach warning criteria another midday cycle or two. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ106-108- 110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ107-109. Coastal Flood Warning from 10 AM to 4 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ107-109. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT Saturday for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...MAS NEAR TERM...SHK SHORT TERM...LEW LONG TERM...LEW AVIATION...MAS MARINE...SHK/LEW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...