Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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205 FXUS62 KILM 200600 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 200 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A weak cold front and low pressure aloft will result in a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorm today. Slightly cooler and drier weather will accompany persistent north- northeasterly winds from Friday through the weekend as high pressure builds in from the north. Rain chances could return by mid next week as moisture increases. && .UPDATE... No changes to the forecast with the early evening update. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Scattered showers continue across the area this aftn, due to a combo of sfc outflow boundaries and cyclonic flow aloft in conjunction with decent deep-layer moisture. Expect the activity to wave following the loss in daytime heating, with the main upr-level trough axis also pulling off the coast. With today`s rainfall, light winds, and small dewpoint depressions tonight, expect patchy to areas of fog mainly inland, though the overall coverage remains unclear due to the continued presence of mid-level clouds and a bit of boundary-layer wind. Low temps in the mid 60s. Dry then for Friday with sfc high pressure building in from the NW and the upr- level trough offshore. Similar temps Friday as today...highs in the low/mid 80s. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Quiet period expected with mostly dry conditions under ridging high pressure. Some daytime instability could lead to shallow pop-up showers Friday due to lingering low-level moisture, but these will yield little to no rainfall as dry air remains dominant aloft. Highs in the mid 80s with lows in the lower to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The period stays primarily dry until mid next week when moisture from a low in the Midwest makes it around the mountains amidst ridging high pressure. Low rain chances will then linger through the end of the period as the high weakens. Temperatures near seasonable. Models remain inconsistent on the potential for a tropical system at the end of the period, but this will be monitored as the forecast period progresses. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Boundary layer winds and lingering low level moisture will once again lead to low confidence TAFs this morning. Short periods of MVFR/IFR are possible for the next few hours. Thus far only low cloud development has occurred along the NC coast, but expect to see some development across inland areas during the next few hours. Also expect to see some MVFR fog develop at inland sites, but varying cloud cover and boundary layer winds should keep visibility mostly above IFR. Widespread VFR shortly after daybreak with any fog or low stratus mixing out. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible, mainly coastal NC, but coverage will be rather sparse and not warrant inclusion within the TAFs. Northeast winds continue today with speeds under 7 kt. Cannot rule out sporadic MVFR around 06Z tonight, but increasing dry air and a slight bump in boundary layer wind speeds will limit potential. Extended Outlook...Mainly dry with VFR conditions, but early morning MVFR/IFR cannot be ruled out at times. && .MARINE... Through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions continue as sfc high pres builds in from the NW. Winds generally out of the NE, up to 10-15 kt during the day Friday. Seas 2-4 ft Friday, a combo of easterly 9-10 second swell and the NE 3-4 second wind wave. Friday Night through Tuesday...Expect N to NE flow through the period generally around 10 kts. Wind speeds will increase to near 15 kts due to NE surges with ridging high pressure Fri night and Mon. Waveheights generally 2-4 ft with 4 footers more designated to the SE NC coastal waters ~20 nm out. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... High astronomical tides and NE flow continue the coastal flood threat through the weekend. WLON7 made it to moderate flooding Thursday, and looks like it will happen again around midday today. Continuing the Coastal Flood Watch for both sides of the lower Cape Fear River this morning. Technically a warning is need at this point, but plan to hold off issuing the warning until around 0700 EDT given that the entire counties do not need to hear a tone alert at 0200 EDT for a product affecting a small portion of the county. Otherwise, mainly expecting only minor flooding for the other high tide cycles, as well as for the beaches where Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Watch from 9 AM EDT this morning through this afternoon for NCZ107-109. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...SHK NEAR TERM...MAS SHORT TERM...LEW LONG TERM...LEW AVIATION...III MARINE...MAS/LEW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...ILM