Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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891 FXUS62 KILM 230625 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 225 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures and thunderstorm chances will increase over the next few days. A weak front will stall across the eastern Carolinas Tuesday, but should return inland Wednesday. Typical summertime weather is expected much of the coming week. && .UPDATE... Spotty showers with localized heavy rain have dissipated along the coast but a few continue inland across Lumberton and the Pee Dee region. These should quickly dry up this evening as the boundary layer stabilizes. Speed convergence within humid onshore wind at the coast has resulted in some low stratocumulus which may continue overnight. The biggest change with this forecast update was adjusting forecast low temps up 1-2 degrees, especially along the coast, where at least a few mph of onshore wind should continue through daybreak. A new wave of showers associated with tropical disturbance 91L may reach Georgetown and parts of the Grand Strand before 8 AM Sunday and I`ve nudged forecast PoPs up 10 percent in this area very late tonight. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Atlantic high pressure will prevail as a weak tropical disturbance near the GA coast slowly shifts northward and weakens. Lingering showers/isolated storms this evening will end due to loss of diurnal heating but additional showers could impact the coast late tonight where the best moisture convergence should occur. Increasing low- level winds should prevent much fog tonight but models suggest some could develop inland, especially in NC where low clouds are more likely. Coastal showers should transition inland Sunday with even a few rumbles of thunder possible. Severe storms are not expected but locally heavy rainfall will be possible which could lead to minor flooding. Lows tonight should be a bit above normal, generally in the lower to mid 70s except upper 70s at the coast. Highs Sunday should be close to normal near the coast but a bit above normal inland, ranging from the mid to upper 80s at the coast to lower to mid 90s inland. Although there is some uncertainty regarding how much dewpoints lower during the day, we think max heat indices will mostly fall below our Heat Advisory levels of 105 degrees. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... A mid level trough and attendant cold front will move across Monday with expected good coverage of showers and thunderstorms late in the day. Still unsure of severe potential but with the trough some decent shear should be available along with good instability. Tuesday should be drier but can`t rule out isolated activity. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Decent chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday via decent agreement with the global guidance. This as another cold front/mid level trough combination move across. BEyond this nothing really special or noteworthy with temperatures in expected ranges. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Continued potential for occasional MVFR stratocu ceilings at MYR and CRE terminals and possibly ILM, due to these low clouds moving onshore thru early this morning. MVFR stratus ceilings may develop across KFLO and KLBT early this morning then transition to a VFR Cu/Stratocu field by mid daytime morning. The remnants of tropical disturbance 91L will lift north along the Carolina coasts today, adding to the shower and tstorm potential along with an increase in coverage. Kept going with previous fcst timing with shra/tsra activity highest along the coastal terminals during this morning, shifting inland this afternoon and evening. Extended Outlook... VFR to prevail outside of the periodic MVFR/IFR from diurnally-induced showers/storms and morning low clouds/fog. && .MARINE... Through Sunday... The central Carolina waters will remain between Atlantic high pressure to the east and an inland trough. Although winds/seas will increase a bit Sunday due to the increasing pressure gradient we don`t expect the need for a Small Craft Advisory. Sunday Night through Thursday... Expect a period of stronger southwest winds Monday in a range of 15-20 knots ahead of a cold front. A brief period of weak offshore winds early Tuesday will be followed by a typical summer pattern of south to southeast winds. Significant seas of 2-4 feet can be expected. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...TRA NEAR TERM...RJB SHORT TERM...SHK LONG TERM...SHK AVIATION...DCH MARINE...RJB/SHK