038
FXUS62 KILM 232345
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
745 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid weather will continue along with scattered
thunderstorms as a weak front stalls across the Carolinas this
week.

&&

.UPDATE...
This was the hottest day of the year so far in Florence, SC
where today`s high temperatures reached 98 degrees. High
humidity briefly pushed the heat index as high as 106 there.

Some substantial changes are being made to forecast low
temperatures tonight based on very high dewpoints and
anticipated sustained breezes within the shallow nocturnal
boundary layer which should keep temperatures from falling very
far. Along the coast I`ve bumped forecast lows upward by 3-4
degrees with upper 70s to around 80 degrees now forecast from
Myrtle Beach to Southport to Wilmington. Smaller increases have
been made inland as well where lows generally in the 75-77
range are expected. Even if coastal sites remain in the 80s
overnight it`s unlike these will go down as the daily low
temperature for 6/24 as Monday evening`s temperatures should
slip quickly into the 70s.

Rain potential appears to be limited to small (20-30 percent)
chances near Cape Fear late this evening as the old remnant
swirl from tropical disturbance 91L moves northeastward across
the area. Winds out at the Frying Pan Shoals buoy are gusting to
25 knots currently. A Small Craft Advisory has already been
issued for deteriorating winds and seas within 20 miles of
shore overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Isolated activity ongoing has finally started showing some lightning
and thunder. Showers and storms are slow-moving and should stay non-
severe, migrating more towards the coast this evening. Isolated
activity could remain at the coast overnight as well as some low
clouds. Warmed lows near the coast, but unsure how thick the cloud
deck will be and how long it will linger overnight. Mid 70s inland
with upper 70s near the coast. Tomorrow could see the threat for
severe weather as a cold front approaches the area. The front should
be pushing into the area around the morning along with a line of
showers and storms which will make the high temp forecast difficult
with increasing cloudiness. Went a bit warmer with the SW flow ahead
of the line, highs in the mid 90s. Heat indices could near advisory
thresholds in some areas but with the incoming precip around the
same time opted to not put one out at this time. Instability is near
2-2.5k but still not looking like much deep layer shear for storm
organization. Seeing a bit of an inverted V in the soundings and
with mixing to around 800mb isolated damaging winds and some hail
can`t be ruled out in stronger storms. The line should shift towards
the coast by the end of the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Pops will linger into Monday evening via a cold front
and mid level trough. The boundary will get bogged down or dissipate
through Wednesday with pops being more confined to southern zones
Tuesday. By Wednesday a more seasonal sea breeze boundary will be
the main catalyst for showers and thunderstorms. While there is
almost no cooling in the wake of the front some slightly lower
dewpoints will decrease heat concerns Tuesday with moisture recovery
Wednesday bringing the possibility of headlines back into play.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Decent pops remain in the forecast for Thursday and
Friday although the coverage and or intensity have taken a hit in
recent medium range model cycles. Although the mid level trough and
front are decent enough it appears the trough is advecting
relatively dry and stable air from the massive ridge out west that
extends into the Gulf of Mexico. Next weekend seems to offer more of
a sea breeze/isolated pulse convection set up. Temperatures will be
on the warm side of climatology but probably just short of any
headline criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Very humid onshore breezes have generated low stratocumulus
clouds along the coast for the second evening in a row. These
clouds should be most prevalent at KMYR, KCRE, and KILM through
02z, then are expected to diminish to SCT coverage. While
these cloud ceilings are expected to remain generally in the
1000-2500 ft AGL range, there is some potential for IFR ceilings
at KMYR and KCRE.

VFR conditions with steady south-southwest breezes are expected
overnight with wind directions veering more westerly by sunrise
Monday. Hot temperatures developing during the day should help
develop a broken eastward-moving line of thunderstorms Monday
afternoon, potentially affecting KFLO and KLBT as early as
17-18z, then moving down to the coast a couple hours later.
High-res model blends show the highest risk for convective
impacts occurring at the KILM airport between 19z-22z where
low visibility in heavy rain has a moderate potential to occur.

Extended Outlook... VFR should prevail outside of periodic
MVFR/IFR during diurnal showers/thunderstorms plus spotty morning
low clouds/fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...
Small Craft conditions should be met in both gusts
and seas tonight with questionable ending time as the 6ft seas look
to take a bit longer to leave our outer waters. Current advisory is
running through Monday morning. Isolated strong storms may move over
the waters Mon PM ahead of a cold front but winds should stay SW
through the period.

Monday Night through Friday...
Residual southwest winds of 10-15 knots late Monday are
seemingly the strongest of the week as a cold front pushes across
briefly. A brief and weak offshore flow will then develop followed
by south to southeast winds ten knots or so through late week.
Significant seas will be 2-4 feet.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents possible for
the Brunswick County and Northern Horry County Beaches
for Mon with a gradually decreasing risk of rip currents
Tue and Wed for all county beaches.

For today, a strong south to north longshore current expected
across Pender and New Hanover County Beaches. This may need to
be expanded to other county beaches for Mon as modest SSW to SW
winds continue, possibly increasing ahead of an approaching
cold front.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
     Monday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM EDT Monday
     for AMZ250-252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...TRA
NEAR TERM...LEW
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...TRA
MARINE...SHK/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...