224
FXUS62 KILM 220630
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
230 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A tropical disturbance will track inland around the northern
Florida and southern Georgia coasts this evening. A warming
trend will then begin Saturday with an extended period of heat,
humidity, and diurnal convection through the middle of next
week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Showers continue around Georgetown area and are beginning to
dissipate gradually. Onshore flow and low level convergence may
continue to produce isolated showers for the remainder of this
evening.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure centered to the northeast over the western
Atlantic will continue to slowly shift eastward through Saturday as
a tropical disturbance moves inland along the N FL/S GA coasts this
evening. Lingering showers/isolated storms this evening will end due
to loss of diurnal heating but additional showers could impact
mostly coastal areas later tonight as weak coastal troughing
develops. Some fog is expected inland later tonight due to
increasing low-level moisture and light winds, which could become
locally dense. Any fog will dissipate quickly around daybreak with
mostly coastal showers transitioning inland with even a few rumbles
of thunder possible. However, rainfall will be limited in any one
place and thus we are not expecting a washout by any means.

Lows tonight should mostly be near to slightly above normal in the
lower to mid 70s. Highs Saturday should be a bit warmer as the flow
begins to turn southerly, generally ranging from the mid to upper
80s closer to the coast (with peak heat indices in the lower to mid
90s) to lower to mid 90s inland (with peak heat indices near 100
degrees).

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Mid level ridge will push to the west as a northwest
flow develops across our area through early week. There appears to
be a decent chance of convection both Sunday and Monday afternoon
via basically more mesoscale features although some spin is noted in
high resolution guidance Sunday probably from the tropical entity.
Temperatures will be on the increase with middle to upper 90s inland
cooler along the coast and a return to middle 70s for lows. Residual
higher dewpoints courtesy of the tropical wave along with these
temperatures may necessitate a heat advisory Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Overall the major components of the extended forecast
remain in place. These consist of a brief northwest flow aloft
relaxing in time along with very warm temperatures with perhaps an
increasing chance for convection late. The warmest day will be
Wednesday where the possibility of triple digit heat remains
(inland) although probably not widespread. There continues to be
some support for a decent rainfall event next Friday via mid level
troughing and of course a stalling front this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Increasing confidence in fog development tonight due to a
combination of earlier rainfall, much more moisture advected
across the area in the lower levels, ie 70s sfc dewpoints and
winds becoming calm away from the immediate coast. Have hit the
fog pretty hard across the inland terminals, including ILM.
Between 12z and 13z, the fog should dissipate as SE-S winds
commence and the sun already 3hrs into the day, increasing
altitude. Could observe onshore movement of shra after daybreak
that may further develop into tstorms as overall flow pushes
further inland. Have included VCSH for the coastal terminals
this morning that will translate inland by this aftn. Have
included a Prob30 tstorm threat mainly for the inland terminals.
Being activity will be diurnally induced, tstorms should
dissipate around dusk. Look for convective clouds in the
evening inland. Calm winds to give way to light SE-S flow
during daylight hrs, except 10+ sustained later this morning
thru the evening across the coastal terminals.

Extended Outlook... VFR to prevail outside of the periodic
MVFR/IFR from diurnally-induced showers/storms and morning low
clouds/fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Saturday...Atlantic high pressure centered to the northeast
will prevail as a tropical disturbance pushes inland along the N
FL/S GA coasts tonight. Winds/seas will generally improve as the
pressure gradient slackens off the Carolina coast.

Saturday night through Wednesday...A south to southwesterly
flow will be in place a good part of the period with the
strongest winds late Sunday into Monday via enhanced low level
jetting probably ending up in the lower end of a 15-20 knot
range. Outside of this 10-15 knots will be the case. A brief
offshore direction is noted Tuesday but the more synoptic flow
southerly flow will quickly jump back into place. Significant
seas will be 2-4 feet.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Other - Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents is in effect
today for Pender, New Hanover, Horry, and Georgetown County
beaches, as well as Ocean Isle Beach west in Brunswick, due to
ESE swell and full moon. Although Oak Island and the south side
of Bald Head Island should see weak rip activity today, the rip
current risk will be higher for the western half of Brunswick
and therefore a moderate risk is in effect for the county. Rip
risk will improve to moderate for east facing beaches on
Saturday as the ESE swell weakens, with a low risk forecasted
for all beaches Sunday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this
     evening for NCZ106-108.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RJB
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...RJB/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...