786
FXUS61 KILN 220543
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
143 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm conditions will continue through Sunday. A cold front will
move through the region Sunday night into Monday, bringing more
seasonable temperatures for the start of the work week. This
will also result in episodic chances for showers and
thunderstorms through Tuesday, with a great deal of uncertainty
in the forecast for the latter half of the upcoming week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
High clouds passing across the region should continue to thin
leaving a mostly clear night. Pretty substantial low level
moisture gradient in place from north to south. Where dew points
remain higher, there will likely be some river valley fog. Made
some slight adjustments to lows given latest trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The drier air entrenched across the region tonight into Sunday
morning will be shunted to the E into the afternoon, with a
fairly pronounced dewpoint gradient expected to go along with it
as some richer LL moisture advects in from the W during the
afternoon. But it will take some effort to truly moisten the
profile, with an expectation that an approaching band of SHRA,
with embedded TS, will erode with eastward extent. The SHRA may
initially be falling from a deck at about 8-10kft, with quite a
bit of dry air to overcome in the LL. This is shown well even on
the typically more moisture-robust guidance, with a rather
deep layer of dry air in the bottom 8-10kft to overcome,
especially during the onset. So while there will most certainly
be some virga and perhaps some sprinkles, the prospect of
appreciable measurable rainfall drops off rather abruptly near/E
of I-75 Sunday afternoon.

With some more expansive cloud cover moving in during the
afternoon from the W, temps on Sunday will be warmest in the E
(lower 90s), with mid 80s favored near/W of I-75.

An additional S/W will move into the region Sunday evening
through early Sunday night, but will again encounter an
increasingly-unfavorable environment locally (after sunset) with
eastward extent. So more of the same is on tap Sunday
evening/night, wherein approaching SHRA/TSRA from the W should
decrease in coverage with eastward extent, providing little more
than perhaps a brief period of RA (and generally less than a
tenth of any inch) for any one location. While there still
should be /some/ precip Sunday evening/night for many locales,
the SCT nature of the activity lends itself to PoPs being
trimmed rather significantly from previous fcst cycles,
generally topping out at only 50-60%.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A more active pattern will be in place for the long term.  Models
continue to be in general agreement through Wednesday with more
variability beyond that time.  While there is at least some rainfall
potential throughout the long term, the greatest likelihood of
precipitation is Monday and especially Tuesday.  Breezy conditions
are also expected on Tuesday.  Kept the model blend low end pops for
beyond Wednesday with greater uncertainty in place.  With
precipitation chances and increased cloud cover during the extended,
temperatures will be lower than what has been in place.  High
temperatures in many locations will be in the 70s with some 80s also
possible southeast of Interstate 71 on Monday.  Lows will be in the
50s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some river valley fog will be possible through daybreak and this
could lead to some MVFR vsby restrictions at KLUK. Otherwise,
high and mid level clouds will increase through today ahead of
a weak mid level short wave approaching from the west. This
will also lead to the potential for scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms later this afternoon into this evening. The best
chance for these would be at the western TAF sites. Some MVFR
cigs will develop late tonight, toward the end of the 30 hour
KCVG TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR cigs possible Monday morning. Thunderstorms
possible Tuesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KC
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JGL