723
FXUS61 KILN 181344
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
944 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system over the southern Appalachians
will slowly migrate to the east today. This system will offer
clouds and perhaps a sprinkle or light rain shower. High
pressure and dry weather will then persist into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
18.12Z sounding had fairly decent mid and high level moisture -
and this is manifested in areas of mid cloud/cirrus that are on
a slow diminishing trend per visible satellite loop this
morning. With increased - but shallow - low level moisture over
previous days, expect some cumulus to develop later this morning
or early this afternoon amidst light easterly/northeasterly low
level flow. Some residual showers are working southwestward
across southeast Ohio/West Virginia around the departing upper
trough/vertically stacked cyclone to our southeast, a few
sprinkles or very light showers may still clip the Scioto
Valley and northeast Kentucky. In addition, forecast soundings
for late this afternoon indicated some very weak instability,
and in combination with some semblance of cyclonic flow/upper
troughing, a number of CAMs continue to show a couple of
isolated updrafts trying to form later this afternoon into this
evening, in no particular or favored location. Given concerns of
low level moisture mixing out per ongoing drought conditions,
confidence in these forming is not high enough to mention, and
may be tied to models continued overforecast of low level
moisture in recent weeks. Bumped up afternoon high temps just a
bit based on low level thermals on morning sounding under a mix
of sun and clouds. Rest of forecast on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Mid level low over the southern Appalachians to open up and
track east overnight into Thursday. Clouds decrease this evening
with skies becoming mostly clear. This will result in more
favorable radiational cooling conditions leading to lows
dipping into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. With a light low
level northeast flow and mainly clear skies - some fog and
stratus development will be possible. The best threat for
stratus looks to be over the northeast counties but there is
still is a fair amount of uncertainty on placement.

A vort lobe rotating around the western periphery of mid level
trof and an axis of marginal instability may result in the
threat for a shower or thunderstorm east of ILN/s area Thursday
afternoon. This activity should remain well east of ILN/s area
with partly cloudy to mostly sunny sky conditions. Sunshine will
aid warm temperatures reaching highs in the mid and upper 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Period starts under high pressure with dry weather expected to
persist from Thursday night through Sunday. Unsettled weather begins
Sunday night with the arrival of mid level short wave energy and
moisture convergence ahead of a boundary, bringing a chance of
showers and a few thunderstorms to northwestern locations. The
threat for showers and storms spreads across the area Monday and
Tuesday as additional short waves and moisture advection coincide
over the Ohio Valley. Severe weather threat is hard to determine at
this point but any measurable rainfall will notable during our
drought.

Temperatures begin hot with highs around 90 Friday and Saturday.
Potential clouds and precip should help curtail readings a bit for
the rest of the long term, with highs in the mid and upper 80s
Sunday and Monday, and the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An upper level low pressure system centered over the southern
Appalachians will slowly migrate east through the TAF period.
A VFR cloud deck mainly in the mid level will decrease in
coverage early thru the morning with the potential for a cumulus
deck into this aftn. Any lingering light showers will be
relegated southeast of the TAF/s during the daylight hours. VFR
conditions will prevail with ceilings scattering out this
afternoon and skies clearing early this evening. With a light low
level northeast flow and mainly clear skies - there is a signal
for fog and stratus development overnight. The best threat for
stratus looks to be over KCMH and KLCK but there is still is a
fair amount of uncertainty on placement.

Have MVFR cigs developing at KCMH/KLCK with MVFR vsbys at KILN
and IFR vsbys at KLUK. The fog will improve Thursday morning
with a return to VFR conditions.

Winds to remain from the east to northeast between 5 and 10
knots.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Binau
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...AR