Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
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231 FXUS61 KILN 180250 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1050 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low pressure system over the southern Appalachians will slowly rotate east through Wednesday. High pressure and dry weather will then persist into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... The center of an upper level low over the southern Appalachians will move very slowly to the southeast tonight. Clouds will continue to affect much of the forecast area from this system, with any light shower activity essentially diminishing overnight. Lows will range from the upper 50s to the lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Have held a chance of showers in our southeast Wednesday as the low slowly weakens. Clouds will continue to offer slightly cooler afternoon temperatures in this area. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue with warm afternoon highs in the lower 80s. Guidance continues to show a decreasing trend in the clouds and PoPs Wednesday night. This will cause more efficient radiational cooling conditions leading to lows dipping into the upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure remains in place over the northeastern CONUS through Saturday night. This synoptic setup will allow for dry conditions and above average temperatures to persist across the Ohio Valley. Forecast highs remain in the 80s. Forecast lows through the end of the week range from near 60 Thursday night to the lower 60s by Saturday night. The surface high is expected to shift further east by Sunday into the start of next week. Winds are forecast to take on a more southwesterly direction as this occurs. This shift in wind direction may allow a subtle increase in moisture across the Ohio Valley although rain chances remain less than 30% each day due to lack of forcing. Unless a low pressure system forms in the Plains, it may be difficult to squeeze out any widespread rainfall despite above average PWATs next week. Above average temperatures likely continue. && .AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The center of an upper level low pressure system over the southern Appalachians will slowly rotate east through the TAF period. Some scattered light shower activity along and southeast of I-71 will decrease in coverage overnight. On Wednesday, any lingering light showers will be relegated to the southeast of the terminals. VFR conditions will prevail with winds remaining east to northeast between 5 and 10 knots in most spots. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Hickman NEAR TERM...Hickman SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...Hickman