717
FXUS61 KILN 200554
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
154 AM EDT Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain in place across the region through
Friday. A fast-moving disturbance will offer scattered showers
and a few storms Friday night as it pushes east through the
Great Lakes. After a warm and dry weekend, a frontal boundary
will move into the area early next week, bringing somewhat
cooler temperatures and a chance for showers.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Update was insignificant this evening regarding changes to the
current forecast. Dropped temps just a bit and lowered sky cover
which was already pretty minimal.

Weak high pressure and a mid-level ridge will continue to
provide dry weather and light winds tonight. Outside of some
river valley fog, mostly clear skies are expected. Guidance is
picking up on a slightly higher potential for patchy fog in
central Ohio in the vicinity of the Licking and Hocking Rivers,
so have added this to the grids in the near term period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
After another quiet day on Friday, the mid level ridge axis
will flatten a bit late in the day into overnight as a
disturbance pushes east through the Great Lakes states. The
latest guidance has come in more energetic with this system.
Consistent with the CAMs (including forecast soundings), have
added a chance of showers and isolated storms from late Friday
evening through Friday night. The best chance of measurable rain
will be north of I-70, but can`t rule out a brief shower
anywhere in the CWA. Either way, QPF will be light due to the
scattered nature of the precipitation.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The Ohio Valley will be between systems this weekend while anomalous
upper level ridging remains in place. Light winds can be expected on
Saturday and Sunday with above average temperatures and above
average PWATs. Forecast highs are near 90 both days Forecast lows
are in the lower to middle 60s. Humidity may be somewhat noticeable
with dew points near 60. Although an isolated shower or storm may be
possible each afternoon, overall chances remain very low without
much forcing in place.

Ensemble guidance is showing a possible increase in rain chances
next week with the possibility of a low pressure system and cold
front moving through the area. The resulting forecast shows a
decrease in temperatures Monday through Wednesday with chances for
rain. We will have to see if forecast QPF amounts can increase to
provide some relief from the drought across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mostly clear skies and light winds early this morning may lead
to some river valley fog with some MVFR to locally IFR vsbys
possible at KLUK through daybreak. Otherwise, a few cu will be
possible again later this morning and into this afternoon. Some
mid level energy will approach from the west this evening and
into tonight. This will result in some isolated to scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms through the tail end of the TAF
period.

OUTLOOK...Hazardous weather is not expected.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...Franks
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...Campbell
AVIATION...JGL