Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
453 FXUS61 KILN 172315 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 715 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low pressure system over the southern Appalachians will slowly rotate east through Wednesday. High pressure and dry weather will then persist into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... Large scale pattern tonight will consist of mid-level ridging centered over the central Plains with troughing over the Appalachians. Decaying tropical low at the base of this trough will be nearly stationary during the period. Clouds and some light showers will remain generally across our southeast associated with the decaying low. A dry atmosphere to the north and west will otherwise provide warm and dry conditions. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Have held a chance of showers in our southeast Wednesday as the low slowly weakens. Clouds will continue to offer slightly cooler afternoon temperatures in this area. Otherwise, partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue with warm afternoon highs in the lower 80s. Guidance continues to show a decreasing trend in the clouds and PoPs Wednesday night. This will cause more efficient radiational cooling conditions leading to lows dipping into the upper 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure remains in place over the northeastern CONUS through Saturday night. This synoptic setup will allow for dry conditions and above average temperatures to persist across the Ohio Valley. Forecast highs remain in the 80s. Forecast lows through the end of the week range from near 60 Thursday night to the lower 60s by Saturday night. The surface high is expected to shift further east by Sunday into the start of next week. Winds are forecast to take on a more southwesterly direction as this occurs. This shift in wind direction may allow a subtle increase in moisture across the Ohio Valley although rain chances remain less than 30% each day due to lack of forcing. Unless a low pressure system forms in the Plains, it may be difficult to squeeze out any widespread rainfall despite above average PWATs next week. Above average temperatures likely continue. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... The center of an upper level low pressure system over the southern Appalachians will slowly rotate east through the TAF period. Some scattered light shower activity along and southeast of I-71 will decrease in coverage overnight. On Wednesday, any lingering light showers will be relegated to the southeast of the terminals. VFR conditions will prevail with winds remaining east to northeast between 5 and 10 knots in most spots. OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM...Campbell AVIATION...Hickman