847
FXUS61 KILN 290713
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
313 AM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and humid airmass will interact with weak mid level
disturbances today, resulting in scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms. A cold front will move in from the northwest
tonight, and then through the remainder of the area on Sunday.
The precipitation threat will end with frontal passage. Cooler
and drier air will return for the beginning of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Through mid morning, a warm and increasingly humid airmass will
interact with a mid level disturbance to bring a threat of
showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. Greatest pcpn coverage
will be across our northern zones where a convergent low level
jet will coincide with the weak upper level lift. It will be
mostly cloudy to cloudy with winds increasing from the south.

For later today and into the afternoon hours, CAMs and models
suggest that another mid level disturbance, perhaps convectively
induced, will ripple east across our forecast area. This should
result in at least scattered convection, with perhaps a higher
threat expected across our northern and eastern zones where some
weak subtle convergence is noted in the models. Moderate
instability and low end moderate shear will pose the threat for
a few strong or severe storms. Given the very moist airmass,
main severe weather threat will be downdrafts occurring from
pcpn loading (mass of water) if the hydrometeors can be pushed
to an appreciable height aloft before descending to the surface.
Mid level lapse rates appear weak enough to limit the hail
threat. The best low level SRH has shifted to the northeast, so
the tornado threat will be limited as well. Can not rule out
some heavy rain or localized flooding since pwats are 2+ inches.
Finally, temperatures will be a little tricky given the
prospects of clouds and pcpn, but it will be starting out very
warm this morning. Highs will range from the mid 80s to the
around 90. Given dewpoints in the mid 70s, heat indices may
briefly touch near 100 degrees, especially for the southern half
of the CWFA. Will mention all these hazards in the HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
For tonight, afternoon convection will be making its way
southeast. Our eyes will then turn to a cold front which will
advance into our area from the northwest. Lift with the front
appears weak, and with the larger scale lift remaining across
Canada, coverage of showers and storms should be sparse. Lows
will range from the mid 60s northwest to the lower 70s
southeast.

On Sunday, the cold front will pass southeast through the
remainder of the region (southern/eastern zones). Once the front
moves by, the pcpn threat will come to an end. Northwest to
northerly flow will begin to advect drier and cooler air
southward. Highs will range from the mid 70s northwest to the
mid 80s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Period starts dry Sunday night through Tuesday with high
pressure settling across the Great Lakes. A slow moving boundary
interacting with a humid and unstable airmass will provide the
focus for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday through Friday.
Though chances for widespread severe weather appear to be muted
by relatively weak winds aloft, there may be rounds of heavy
rain from an atmosphere containing 1.5 to 2 inches PWAT.

After below normal highs in the 70s to around 80 on Monday, a
warming trend in the circulation around the high will allow
readings into the 90s by Wednesday. A modest retreat to the mid
and upper 80s is indicated for Thursday and Friday due to
clouds, precip and slight cold advection associated with the
boundary.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through about 15Z Saturday, an embedded mid level disturbance
will ripple across the southern Great Lakes. This feature will
interact with deepening moisture and a low level convergent jet
to result in some showers/embedded thunderstorms, mainly along
and north of I-70 which includes the KDAY/KCMH/KLCK terminals.
Have only included a predominate MVFR visibility at these sites,
but will certainly watch radar trends should amendments be
needed. That is because where thunderstorms occur, MVFR
conditions with local IFR visibilities could be experienced
briefly. Winds will increase from the south to 10 to 15 knots
with gusts developing in the 15 t0 25 knot range.

For later today, the region will be enveloped in a moist
airmass well ahead of a cold front pushing southeast into the
western Great Lakes and middle Mississippi River Valley. Various
convective allowing models try to produce scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon as another mid
level disturbance moves east across the area. Timing appears to
be in the afternoon with the northern TAF sites perhaps seeing
the better precipitation coverage. Again, thunderstorms will be
capable of producing MVFR conditions along with at least IFR
visibilities. Southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts in
the 15 to 25 knot range will continue, but should decrease
between 22Z and 00Z.

For tonight, aforementioned cold front will move southeast into
the central Great Lakes and middle Ohio Valley. Will continue
with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, but coverage should
be sporadic in nature. Models indicate that some MVFR ceilings
may develop in the 06Z and 12Z Sunday time range ahead of the
cold front.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Sunday morning. Thunderstorms
possible Wednesday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hickman
NEAR TERM...Hickman
SHORT TERM...Hickman
LONG TERM...Coniglio
AVIATION...Hickman