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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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070 FXUS63 KILX 261708 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1208 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger across central Illinois today before a cold front passes. Severe weather is not expected. - The next chance for beneficial rainfall will arrive Friday into Saturday as another cold front passes through the region. && .UPDATE... Issued at 956 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A weak upper trough remains draped over the region this morning, resulting in a few areas of rainfall as of 10am/15z. The rain associated with the upper forcing extends from south/west of Lincoln southward into the MO Bootheel, while further north showers have developed near an advancing cold front. The 12z ILX sounding sampled PWAT values of 1.6", while RAP analysis suggests PWAT values are in the 1.6-1.8" range. Instantaneous rainfall rates within the most intense showers are anywhere from 1 to 2.5"/hour, so will be monitoring for isolated flooding issues after yesterday`s rains. Overall, these showers are fairly progressive (steadily advancing SE), so it seems unlikely that flooding develops despite the occasionally intense rainfall rates. Made edits to PoPs to reflect current trends and latest guidance, but the general PoP trends outlined in the previous forecast package still hold true. Erwin && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A short-wave trough evident on 08z/3am water vapor imagery over northern Minnesota will dig into the Great Lakes today, pushing a cold front southward into Illinois. Thanks to extensive cloud cover, the pre-frontal airmass will remain relatively stable with NAM SBCAPEs generally under 1000J/kg. Despite the meager instability, lift along/ahead of the front will be sufficient to trigger scattered showers/thunder across the area...with the greatest areal coverage occurring along/south of I-70 this afternoon as an MCV from ongoing convection across Kansas/Missouri approaches from the west. Have therefore carried low chance PoPs across much of the KILX CWA..with likely PoPs (60%) focused along/south of I-70. High temperatures will mostly remain in the lower 80s, but will climb into the middle 80s along/northwest of the Illinois River where partial sunshine will be observed by mid to late afternoon. High pressure will build into the region tonight, leading to clearing skies and cool overnight lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Abundant sunshine and comfortable late June weather will be on tap for Thursday as high temperatures only reach the lower to middle 80s. Barnes .LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A progressive upper flow pattern will dominate the CONUS throughout the extended...leading to near to slightly below normal temperatures, as well as periodic rain chances. As the next in a series of short-wave troughs tracks along the U.S./Canada border, a cold front will approach from the west late Thursday night. Showers and a few thunderstorms will develop ahead of the front in an increasingly moist airmass characterized by precipitable water values increasing to around 2 inches on Friday...with the highest PoPs focused along/north of I-72. As the front pushes into central Illinois, thunderstorms will become more numerous across the board Friday night into Saturday morning before the boundary settles southeastward into the Ohio River Valley. Initial storm total rainfall projections suggest widespread amounts of 0.25 to 1.00...with locations along/northwest of a Rushville to Bloomington line potentially picking up 1 to 2 inches. Once the front passes, a return to cool/dry weather is expected for Sunday and Monday as highs drop into the upper 70s and lower 80s and lows dip into the middle to upper 50s. After that, another short-wave will come into the picture by the middle of next week...bringing the next chance for rain by Tuesday. Barnes && .AVIATION... (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 A few showers continue drifting towards the southeast near and along the I-74 corridor early Wednesday afternoon. These showers have had a history of producing lightning strikes, and though they`ve weakened we cannot rule out an isolated additional strike though the probability appears low (less than 10%) one will occur within 10 miles of BMI and CMI at this time... so it was not mentioned in their TAFs. VCSH was taken out most locations after around 20-22z (i.e., 3-5pm CDT), though some guidance is suggesting 10-20% chances for a light shower ahead of the secondary frontal boundary entering the area from the northwest late this afternoon. This evening into tonight, winds will veer to northeasterly as surface high pressure builds in, maintaining a dry airmass and fostering continued VFR conditions. Bumgardner && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$