Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
Issued by NWS Central Illinois
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360 FXUS63 KILX 130451 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation National Weather Service Lincoln IL 1151 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm temperatures continue tomorrow. - A prolonged period of hot and humid conditions begins Thursday and continues into next week. Air temperatures will range from the upper 80s to middle 90s with heat indices reaching to around 100 Sunday and Monday, posing a threat for heat-related illnesses. - Storm chances (30-70%) return late Thursday afternoon into evening. Some of these storms could be severe with strong damaging winds and very large hail possible...mainly during the evening hours. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Night) Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Quiet weather is expected for most of the night, before remnants of convection from storms in developing in the northern Miss Valley move into the northwest parts of the CWA late tonight. The showers and storms late tonight will continue into tomorrow morning but should diminish around 10am, and remain in the far north and northwest parts of the CWA. Then dry weather is expected late tomorrow morning into afternoon. The front, currently in far northern parts of the US, will arrive into IL tomorrow afternoon. Models are not in agreement with timing of convection tomorrow afternoon, but a blend puts precip arriving late tomorrow afternoon in the far northwest parts of the CWA. The convection will really get going and continue to move southeast into the CWA tomorrow evening. Instability and shear look very good for severe weather with these storms tomorrow night, with some models indicating the severe weather threat could be large hail and damaging winds. Highest pops will be in the north and central parts of the CWA with only chance pops getting down to southeast IL. Temps will get quite warm tomorrow, reaching into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Overnight lows in the 60s Auten .LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Wednesday) Issued at 332 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Dry weather will prevail into the extended forecast period with rain chances returning Tue and Wed of next week. Temps will also become very warm, into the 90s, starting on Sunday and continuing into next week. Even through dwpts will be in the 60s during the period, heat index values are still expected to reach to around 100 for Sun and Mon. Auten && .AVIATION... (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night) Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Mid-level clouds will be on the rise overnight as a decaying cluster of showers moves into western Illinois. While we have added VCSH to the KPIA terminal around 12z, confidence in rain reaching KSPI/KBMI is considerably lower. Despite the clouds and rain, VFR conditions are anticipated through Thursday afternoon. Attention then turns to Thursday evening as an organized line of showers and thunderstorms develops across portions of southeast Iowa and northern Illinois, gradually spreading southward into central Illinois prior to 00z. Enough signal exists within forecast models to introduce high confidence -TSRA across the regional terminals with this TAF cycle. MJA && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$