Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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780 FXUS63 KIND 230710 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 310 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and some thunderstorms this morning. Gusty winds possible. - Tuesday likely to be warmest day of the week. - More thunderstorms possible Tuesday into Wednesday, with one or more rounds of strong to severe storms possible, though uncertain. - A brief respite from heat and humidity late in the week. && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Early This Morning... A line of showers and thunderstorms extended from Lower Michigan southwest into Missouri and was moving east/southeast. Scattered cells were developing ahead of it. The convection was ahead of a cold front and an upper wave. Mesoanalysis shows that the convection was running ahead of the better instability, and instability continues to weaken diurnally. Satellite showed warming tops with the convection as well. Thus, feel that odds of severe convection will continue to lower. With some decent wind fields aloft still, there remains a threat of gusty winds over 40 mph though. With some upper support with the trough and the right entrance region of an upper jet, feel that convection will survive the usual diurnal weakening period and continue to push south and east through the hours before 12Z. Will have likely or higher PoPs northwest and PoPs up to likely southeast as the line weakens diurnally. Today... The weakened line should be only across the far southeastern portions of the area by 12Z. Will have high chance or low likely PoPs there, with lower PoPs to the northwest. Will not go dry behind the line initially, because the surface front will linger behind the line and could spark some additional showers. Will keep some PoPs behind the line early in the today period, gradually diminishing from northwest to southeast into early afternoon. The remainder of the day should remain dry. Some CAMs are showing a few showers developing in the afternoon, but just don`t see the forcing for them. Will keep the forecast dry. Temperatures will be cooler than recent days thanks to the morning cloud cover and the passage of the cold front. Highs will peak in the middle 80s to around 90. Tonight... Drier air will move in on northwest flow, and high pressure will build in from the west. Skies will be mostly clear, and winds will diminish as the high moves in. The result will be a cooler night across central Indiana, with lows from near 60 northeast to the middle 60s south. && .LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)... Issued at 309 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Higher than normal warmth continues through the long term with a couple of widespread 90s days possible between brief (relative) relief in between. Tuesday will see the best chance of hitting low to mid 90s across the region but could be possible again Saturday. Late in the week will also see more comfortable dew points in the 40s and 50s behind the mid week system, but moisture and humidity will return for the weekend with additional rain chances. The retrograding ridge is expected to stay over the SW states for much of the week, allowing a few systems to impact the local region. The next system will arrive for Tuesday and Wednesday as a surface low progresses across central Canada and its associated front will move through the Great Lakes region. A couple rounds of storms with this system may impact central Indiana: the first is more uncertain but an MCS could arrive early Tuesday morning, reaching our NW to N counties. The next, and more likely round, will move across central Indiana along the frontal boundary, arriving late Tuesday and could last through the day Wednesday. If severe storms are to occur in central Indiana, it will be most likely be cold pool driven given far weaker deep layer shear this far south, with damaging winds the primary threat. The latter portion of the work week will see quiet weather, slightly lower temps, and significantly lower dewpoints as high pressure returns over the SE states. This may be short-lived unfortunately as guidance indicates potential for additional convective potential along the periphery of the ridge as we get into next weekend. Model differences are significant with respect to ridge amplitude and location, and thus relatively low chances are forecast for the moment. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1257 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Impacts: - Showers and some thunderstorms from about 08-12Z - MVFR ceilings after the convection persist through Sunday morning - Winds becoming west during the morning then northwest, with gusts to around 20kt at times Discussion: A line of showers and some thunderstorms will push southeast across central Indiana during the overnight hours, bringing MVFR conditions in the convection. Odds of thunder are highest at KLAF and lowest at KBMG. After the convection passes, MVFR ceilings will persist through Sunday morning. Ceilings will then become VFR and scatter out during the afternoon. A few showers may linger Sunday morning. Wind gusts will develop overnight and persist through Sunday, and winds will veer to W and NW as a cold front passes. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...KF AVIATION...50