Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
546 FXUS63 KIND 151835 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 235 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid trend starts Sunday, with potentially hazardous heat into next week - Low chance for a few showers or storms Monday and Tuesday && .SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)... Issued at 234 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Through Tonight... An upper level ridge will move across central Indiana through tonight while high pressure to the east will continue its influence. This will keep the weather quiet across the area. Some cirrus will move across the top of the ridge, perhaps bringing partly cloudy conditions to mainly northern portions of the area at times tonight. Winds will diminish some tonight, and drier air will remain in the lower atmosphere for much of the area. This will allow temperatures to fall into the upper 50s and lower 60s for lows most areas. Sunday... As a surface high moves farther east on Sunday, winds across central Indiana will become southerly. This will bring in a warmer and more humid airmass into the region. Plentiful sunshine will then boost temperatures into the lower and middle 90s for highs. Heat indices will be in the upper 90s in the west and southwest, where the highest dewpoints will be. && .LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)... Issued at 234 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Hot and Humid Much of Next Week... An upper level high will be across the eastern USA throughout the long term period, with anomalously high heights. This will lead to hot temperatures, which will extend into central Indiana. Excessive heat may occur a few times, but the prolonged nature of the heat could lead to a cumulative effect, especially on vulnerable populations. Lower to middle 90s will continue on Monday, but some moisture will creep into the area. This will allow for the possibility of a few pop-up afternoon thunderstorms. This moisture will also produce heat indices near 100 degrees. For Tuesday and somewhat into Wednesday, a plume of deeper moisture will move north on the back side of the upper high into the area. This will produce more clouds. Also, mid level temperatures will remain cool enough that some isolated to scattered convection will pop-up, especially west where the deeper moisture will be. The combination of clouds and convection will keep temperatures cooler than Monday, but still very warm to hot. Heat indices will be in the 90s. For Thursday into Friday, the upper high will expand west into the area, bringing back temperatures in the mid 90s. Dewpoints may be lower thanks to the moisture plume being pushed west, but it may not take much to have heat indices to around 100. The upper high may start to break down on Saturday and beyond, but models differ on timing and how much it breaks down. For now will continue with highs in the 90s, but with lower confidence. The lower confidence for temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday (with models showing a wide spread in between 25th and 75th percentiles on temperatures) precludes any issuance of excessive heat products at this time. However, will still have to keep a close eye on the cumulative effects of the heat this week. && .AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 1247 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Impacts: - None Discussion: VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Cirrus will pass through from time to time into Sunday. A few cumulus may pop up over the western sites late Sunday morning. Winds will be southeast this afternoon with perhaps some gusts around 15kt. On Sunday, winds will become southerly. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...50 AVIATION...50