Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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109 FXUS63 KIWX 182332 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 732 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm, dry, and stagnant pattern to persist into at least the start of the weekend. - Confidence in needed rainfall chances next week remains low, with greatest potential possibly arriving Tue/Wed. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 237 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Advection of moisture from the east overnight resulted in rather extensive area of fog early this morning as far west as the IN 15/US 131 corridor. Some concerns a similar setup could occur tonight, but confidence in widespread/dense nature is low. Have added patchy mention in eastern areas late tonight into early Thursday for now. Sheared out wave attempts to push a front into NW areas Friday, but decreasing forcing and shallow nature of limited moisture likely limits these areas to at most a few sprinkles. Blend expanded pops east and have cut them back significantly. Upper level ridge grabs hold Fri night with models continuing to struggle on how fast it breaks down in response to a stronger wave edging east across the Plains over the weekend. Quality of moisture return and progress of the trough will be key to determining if we have better chances for rainfall towards mid week. In coordination with western offices, lowered dewpoints Saturday as decent mixing should continue given the dry mid levels and strong heating. Model blend also continues to be riddled with likely overdone pops Sun-Mon with slightly higher (but still low overall) confidence on at least some rainfall to end the period. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 730 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 The same airmass that went through the area overnight last night remains across the area tonight and will make it conducive to another night of fog. Aviation guidance, once again, tanks the area into LIFR conditions and, with last night`s fog providing some confidence, will also bring the area into IFR conditions early Thursday. A return to VFR conditions can be expected thereafter. Light winds may contain an easterly component with times of northerly and southerly components during this TAF period. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Fisher AVIATION...Roller