Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana
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668 FXUS63 KIWX 230530 AFDIWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Northern Indiana 130 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain this afternoon and evening will taper off tonight. - Additional rain arrives Monday night through Tuesday. - Cooler temperatures this week with highs in the 70s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 123 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024 A surface low centered over southern Lake Michigan combined with lift associated with a weak from and dewpoints rising to around 70 is causing moderate rain showers to move across the area this afternoon. There may be a few embeded thunderstorms, but severe weather is not expected due to limited instability and only marginal shear. A cold front will move through later tonight and showers will taper off from west to east, leaving Monday dry and much cooler. High temperatures will only be in the low 70s. However, a shortwave will move up from the southwest on Monday night, bringing more rain for Tuesday, with lingering showers possible on Wednesday. By Thursday, the region will again be stuck between low pressure system and high pressure will build back in. Temperatures will warm, although it will not be as hot as last week, with highs confined mainly to the upper 70s or low 80s. There is some uncertainty though as to whether or not we will be dry. This will depend on the track of a cutoff low to the south and if any shortwaves rotate far enough north to bring convection into the area. The best chances for more rain will probably be next weekend. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 130 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Ceilings are highly variable across the area and this will likely continue through the early morning based on regional obs and latest model guidance. Steady postfrontal CAA will likely support a general trend toward IFR by 09-12Z though with only minor improvement until better mixing develops around 16-18Z. VFR anticipated thereafter with impacts from next trough not arriving until after 06Z Monday night. && .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for INZ103. OH...None. MI...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for MIZ177-277. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LMZ043- 046. && $$ DISCUSSION...Cobb AVIATION...AGD