294
FXUS64 KJAN 241107
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
607 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 343 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Through tonight: A cold front is currently making rather slow
progress into the region and will continue to do so through tonight.
Ahead of this front, scattered showers have been moving across
northeast LA and the ArkLaMiss Delta early this morning. This
activity is expected to lose steam as daybreak approaches. However,
with diurnal heating, redevelopment of showers is expected ahead of
the front this afternoon. Marginally supportive bulk shear and
sufficient instability will exist for isolated storms to develop.
However, relatively weak forcing, marginal mid level lapse rates,
and largely boundary-parallel flow should help temper intensity.

Tonight, a more vigorous upper disturbance is on track to move
across the area as it rounds a cutoff upper low pivoting into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley. Increased forcing associated with this
feature should yield greater coverage of showers and embedded
thunderstorms along and ahead of the front, even as we head into the
overnight. While rainfall amounts will average below a half inch in
most areas, locally higher amounts will be possible with HREF LPMM
suggesting max localized totals in the 2-4" range. Given current
ground conditions with these amounts, flooding is not a concern at
this time. Cooler and somewhat drier air will begin to move in from
the north tonight behind the front, with airmass change becoming
more noticeable in the following days. /DL/

Wednesday through Monday: Extended forecast remains on track as a
stalled frontal boundary keeps wet conditions across the area and
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (PTC 9) moves northward into the
southern Gulf of Mexico. Thanks to both the stalled frontal
boundary and increased cloud cover from the tropical system,
slightly below to near average high/low temps are expected.

A slow-moving closed low forms over the Ozarks/ArkLaTex region as a
blocking pattern comes into place and a stalled frontal boundary
is expected to remain situated over the CWA, continuing rain
chances (25-60%) for the area.

Turning to the tropics: a tropical disturbance (now PTC 9) is
expected to migrate northwards toward the Gulf of Mexico. Models are
in agreement in tracking and strengthening the system into a
hurricane in the eastern Gulf, affecting FL panhandle near
Thursday. Interaction between the closed-low and tropical cyclone
is expected to bring abundant moisture to the region. IVT and PW
values are expected to be near the 99th and maximum percentile,
resulting in possible heavy rainfall across the area through
Friday, especially in eastern and northern parts of the CWA. As
the remnants of the tropical cyclone absorb into the main flow and
the closed low moves out of the area, rain chances will begin to
decrease for majority of the area this weekend. Continue to check
back for updates as the event gets closer. /SW/

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR flight conditions to begin TAF period. Patchy fog will be
possible near sunrise. Expect southeasterly winds between 5-10
kts. -RA/VCTS will be possible this afternoon and evening. As a
result, MVFR/IFR flight categories will be possible towards the
end of the TAF period. /SW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       91  68  83  64 /  40  60  50  30
Meridian      92  68  83  64 /  10  50  60  50
Vicksburg     91  68  83  62 /  40  50  30  20
Hattiesburg   94  70  88  68 /  10  20  50  40
Natchez       91  69  83  63 /  30  40  40  10
Greenville    87  64  79  60 /  20  10  30  10
Greenwood     90  65  81  61 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DL/SW/SW