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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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211 FXUS64 KJAN 160010 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 710 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 Tonight through Tomorrow... A couple of lingering isolated showers and storms will be possible later this evening as global guidance continues to highlight a disturbance in the southern Gulf beneath the ridge. Maintained low PoPs (less than 20%), especially for areas east of the I-55 corridor in order to capture this. Weak flow will limit organization and longevity, thus some storms will be intermittent in nature. Showers and storms will start to diminish heading into the overnight period mostly clear skies. With skies clearing and high boundary layer moisture, lows will only fall into the low to mid 70s across our CWA. Hot conditions will continue heading into Sunday as the ridge remains in place over the southeast CONUS. Areas along and north of I-20 will see temperatures in the upper 90s, with a few spots approaching the triple digits. Fortunately, dewpoints will be relatively lower in these areas (67-70 degrees), with higher dewpoints south of I-20. The limited heat stress graphic has been maintained for Sunday in our HWO graphics. The ridge will begin to shift eastward by Sunday afternoon allowing for S/SE low-level flow to draw tropical moisture into the area. By Sunday evening/night, increasing upper divergence associated with a shortwave trough over Texas will support increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms over the southern half of the area. Monday through Saturday... Later on Monday, storm chances will start to increase northward across our forecast area as tropical moisture advects into the area. Locally heavy rainfall is possible as PWATs are expected to surpass 2 inches across much of the area. Southern portions of the area could see PWATs around 2.5 inches leading to several areas to see high rainfall amounts. The disturbance down in the southern Gulf will bring in anomalous moisture and could lead to the possibility of some localized flash flooding potential. Forecast confidence, including NBM probabilities less than 30%, remain low at this time as there is still some discrepancies within the guidance as to where the heaviest rain is most likely to occur. Recent trends in global consensus indicate most favored area of right entrance region of the upper jet and low-level jet focusing more on the northwestern Gulf of Mexico towards the TX/LA coastlines. We will continue to monitor trends and if confidence increases, may need to begin to advertise flooding threats as we get closer to this event. Heading into Wednesday, the ridge will begin to build back into our forecast area as global guidance shows the tropical disturbance shifting westward towards Texas. Rain chances will continue to diminish across our CWA later in the work week. Temperatures will start to climb back into the mid to upper 90s as we head into the weekend with heat indices nearing 105 degrees and increased heat stress into next weekend. /CR/DC/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 708 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024 A few isolates SHRA are possible through 03Z Sunday, but should remain away from the TAF sites. Generaly southerly winds will increase to around 10 kts Sunday by 18Z, with increasing chances for SHRA or TSRA spreading north into the area in that same time frame. VFR conditions should preavail through the period apart from any variable conditions near rain or storms. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 73 95 74 87 / 20 30 20 70 Meridian 72 96 72 87 / 20 40 20 60 Vicksburg 73 95 74 87 / 20 20 20 70 Hattiesburg 73 93 74 87 / 20 70 40 80 Natchez 72 93 73 85 / 20 40 30 80 Greenville 75 98 75 90 / 20 10 10 60 Greenwood 75 97 75 89 / 20 10 10 60 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ CR/NF