147
FXUS64 KJAN 160248 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
948 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 947 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Rest of tonight...

Lingering remnant upper low continues to linger across the Mid
South region, with continued high moisture & light flow around the
upper low. Sfc frontal zone is stalled across the Gulf Coast, with
lingering rains across the region. Outside of a few being locally
heavy, most have had some movement & not been too much concern,
outside of some that have locked on remnant outflow boundary.
With deep moisture in the 1.8 inch range in evening observations,
some locally heavy rain rates have been ongoing, but cloud tops
have warmed & should continue to weaken through 11PM. Main
concerns will be low clouds & fog. There are continued HREF probs
of >25-30% of fog southwest of the Jackson Metro area. With some
gridded LAMP probabilities exceeding favorable probs of >20-30%
for several hours after midnight, high boundary layer moisture &
lingering light drizzle/rain around, some patchy dense fog is
possible overnight. Added a local HWO graphic highlighting patchy
dense fog in our central to southwest zones along & southwest of a
line from Greenville to the Jackson Metro to the Pine Belt in
southeast MS & including all of southeast AR & northeast LA. Lows
will be seasonably warm in the upper 60s to low 70s (67-72F).
Updates are out. /DC/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

Tonight and Monday...Low pressure is still over the region
keeping rain and clouds over the area. The heaviest rains today
have been over northeast Mississippi. A few thunderstorms cannot
be ruled out this evening as this low continues to hang out over
the region. Guidance is still hinting at some fog potential across
the southern portions of the area overnight and have added the
fog into the forecast overnight. We may have to expand it or
possibly issue a Fog Advisory if things pan out. Rain and shower
chances still remain elevated on Monday as this low weakens
Monday. /MJH/

Monday night through Sunday...With the lingering boundary, rain chances
were extended into Tuesday generally south of I-20. Not sure how
fast clouds will thin out on Tuesday, so thinking it will be a few
degrees cooler than models show, but not significant enough to
make any changes. The latest NAM/GFS hold on to the boundary into
Wednesday afternoon/Thursday. Although the boundary will likely be
along the coast a few showers and thunderstorms can`t be ruled
out along the hwy 84 corridor. Not confident, so will leave the 10
percent in the forecast, basically going with guidance pops and
temps through the forecast period.

The upper wave of what will be left of Francine by Tuesday should be
much weaker and headed south out of the area. The stalled front will
be the focus for thunderstorm activity. Upper level support didn`t
look great, but convergence along the boundary and some general
heating may support some thunderstorms in the afternoon. High
pressure was expected to squeeze in between disturbances around
Thursday and help to push everything out. The end of the week going
into the weekend looks dry. Although winds around the nearby
circulations on all levels were north/northeast, the airmass
building in from Mexico should bring some hot and dry air into the
region. Guidance has above normal high temperatures, where the
GFS 850mb model temps stay around 16-18 degree. /07/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 710 PM CDT Sun Sep 15 2024

A mixed bag of VFR to MVFR ceilings/stratus are ongoing, due to
light RA at central to eastern TAF sites or in the VC. This
general persistence pattern will give way to another night of
lowered ceilings dropping quickly to IFR flight categories/stratus
around 16/04-07Z Monday. There are some indications of some LIFR
ceilings, at GLH, PIB, HBG & HEZ, with some patchy fog/BR at most
sites overnight. Vsby in northwest, central to southwestern TAF
sites from GLH to HKS/JAN, PIB/HBG & HEZ, could fall to IFR to
LIFR from patchy to areas of dense fog overnight. Additional light
RA development is likely for the northeastern most TAF sites
through daybreak Monday, outside of HKS/JAN, PIB/HBG & HEZ. The
earliest onset will be at GWO, GTR & MEI, from 16/09-16Z &
persisting into the aftn & spreading west-southwest. Flight
restrictions from dense fog & low stratus will improve to MVFR by
16/15-17Z Monday & persist through the end of the TAF period. RA
will decrease in coverage in north-central to northeast sites into
Monday aftn. Light easterly winds will persist through Monday
aftn, sustained up to 10mph & brief gusts up to 20mph. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  82  68  84 /  30  70  20  20
Meridian      71  81  65  84 /  70  70  20  20
Vicksburg     70  83  68  84 /  10  60  10  10
Hattiesburg   73  85  69  86 /  30  70  20  30
Natchez       67  84  68  84 /   0  50  10  20
Greenville    70  79  66  84 /  60  60  10   0
Greenwood     71  80  66  86 /  60  60  10   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

DC/07/DC