Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
724 FXUS64 KJAN 180025 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 725 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 720 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Updated POPs and weather into the overnight hours following the latest radar trends and expected downstream motions of a current cluster of storms in East Mississippi. Cluster should hold together for a while longer as it moves NNW. Brief heavy downpours and some thunder will accompany this activity, but most of the remainder of the area should see only light rain through the night. Rest of the forecast thinking remains on track. /NF/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 143 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Tonight and Tomorrow... Afternoon showers and storms will be diminishing overnight with rain chances ending by midnight. Overnight lows will be seasonably warm with deep layer moisture remaining in place and associated dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s helping to support overnight lows in the lower to middle 70s F. Remnant convective debris and high cirrus from a tropical feature well to our south will likely result in skies partly to mostly cloudy. Winds will remain light and generally out of the south. By Tuesday, an upper ridge centered near the southeastern CONUS coast will be strengthening and beginning to retrograde, resulting in markedly increased heights across the area. As the tropical wave being monitored by the NHC in the Gulf of Mexico begins to slowly drift west, deep layer moisture will consolidate in the western Gulf while drier continental air spills westward into our area. This combination of a drying low level environment with increasing heights aloft will result in noticeable increases in temperatures and a reduction in rain chances through the upcoming week. Later This Week.. The pattern will remain rather stagnant locally through the week as the deep layer ridge continues to strengthen and expand its influence westward. 500 mb anomalies will likely range 7 to 10 dam above climate normals by the weekend with some areas threatening triple digits for afternoon highs. An isolated shower or thunderstorm can`t be ruled out through this week, but coverage will likely be quite sparse as PWs fall below 1.6 inches and overall upper subsidence controls the synoptic pattern. Triple digit temperatures will be possible and 96-99 F temperatures likely across the area as we move into this weekend. Uncertainties mostly concerning how much boundary layer moisture will remain which will determine peak-heating dewpoints and therefor maximum apparent temperatures will make excessive heat hazard forecasts challenging but some heat-related outlook appears likely at some point. /86/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 720 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 A band of SHRA and TSRA moving north across eastern Mississippi to start the TAF period could bring brief heavy rain and variable flight conditions to a few of the TAF sites, but otherwise expect VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Some low stratus producing MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out with the increased humidity following rainfall, but confidence was too mention to mention in the TAFs at this time. Additional showers or storms could impact mainly the KHEZ site after 15Z Tuesday. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 73 87 73 91 / 60 10 0 0 Meridian 71 88 71 91 / 60 0 0 0 Vicksburg 73 87 73 91 / 40 20 0 0 Hattiesburg 72 88 73 92 / 60 20 0 10 Natchez 72 84 72 90 / 40 30 10 20 Greenville 74 89 73 92 / 40 10 0 0 Greenwood 73 88 73 92 / 30 10 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DC/LP/NF