775
FXUS64 KJAN 171828 AAA
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
128 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 947 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Showers have largely diminished though midmorning from overnight
activity associated with a northward advancing convective cluster.
The remnant MCV and continued northerly transport of rich,
tropical moisture will allow for a rejuvenation of scattered
showers and storms the the afternoon. A few stronger cores could
produce briefly gusty winds but organized convection remains
unexpected. Temperatures won`t be as oppressively hot this
afternoon as we saw this past weekend, thanks in large part to the
cloud cover and rain chances. That trend still appears to reverse
and warmer and drier weather is still anticipated into next week.
/86/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 356 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Through tonight: Deep layer moisture continues to increase across
our area on the western periphery of a ridge. Within this regime, an
MCV remnant from Sunday`s convection has been slowly lifting
northward across MS overnight and has helped incite scattered shower
activity across the area. With the addition of fuel from insolation
later today along with additional convergence bands associated with
the Gulf of Mexico tropical disturbance, considerable coverage of
showers and thunderstorms is anticipated throughout the day. While
locally heavy downpours will be possible given 2+ in. PWs, this
activity looks to be progressive enough to minimize the threat for
widespread flooding. It is possible isolated spots could pick up a
few inches of rain, as indicated by recent CAM runs, but most areas
should be able to handle these amounts. Though precip coverage will
generally decrease after sunset, mesoscale forcing may help sustain
some shower activity well into tonight. With added clouds and rain
today, conditions will be milder, with many areas unlikely to reach
the 90 degree mark. /DL/

Tuesday Through Next Weekend: Tuesday a strong 595dam mid level
ridge will be centered over the mid-atlantic states at the start
of the long term period. We can expect to see southerly wind flow
that will keep moisture constant with rain and storm chances
through mid-week. These rain and storm chances will mainly be
focused along our southern counties and the highest rain totals
will be along the coast nearer to the tropical airmass coming from
the Gulf of Mexico. As the high pressure system moves up the east
coast it will expand through much of the mid MS valley region
through the end of the long term period. Simultaneously a
disturbance in the southwestern portions of the Gulf of Mexico
will likely transition into a tropical depression, however the
system looks to track westward across Mexico. It is unlikely that
our area sees any impacts.

Thursday-Sunday: Ridging at the surface and aloft will help mitigate
rain chances as the more moist tropical airmass will be in place
further west southwest as the disturbance/depression continues its
track west through Mexico. By next weekend the NHC has an area of
low pressure forming just east of the coast of Florida. This system
is forecast to move westward and may have our area seeing showers
and storms by Sunday. Through the longterm period we can expect to
see seasonably warm temps with mid 90s high temperatures expected
through late week./KP/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Coverage of SHRA & TSRA are increasing, with most likely area of
impacts being psbl at central to westernmost TAF sites. Brief
categorical reductions, down to IFR vsby, to are possible within
TSRA & heavy SHRA. Rain coverage will decrease tonight, mainly
after 18/01-03Z. Additional ceiling reductions are possible late
tonight into early Tue morning, mainly across south MS, but
confidence is not high enough to introduce in the 18Z TAF cycle.
SHRA & TSRA are psbl in southwest sites into Tuesday aftn, while
VFR conditions elsewhere. East-southeast winds, up to 15mph &
gusts up to 20mph, are psbl through the TAF period. /DC/DL/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  87  73  92 /  20  10   0  10
Meridian      71  89  72  92 /  20  10   0   0
Vicksburg     73  87  72  92 /  20  20   0  10
Hattiesburg   73  88  73  92 /  40  20   0  20
Natchez       72  84  72  90 /  20  30  10  20
Greenville    74  90  74  92 /  20  10   0   0
Greenwood     74  90  74  92 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LP/KP/DC