094
FXUS64 KJAN 160754
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
254 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

...New DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Today and tonight...

Hot temperatures will persist today with heat indices around 105
still possible. However, temperatures should be somewhat capped
due to increasing moisture advection into the area. Still, a
limited graphic for heat stress is being messaged for today as
well. Given this moisture, along with a wave pushing northward,
scattered showers and storms will be possible this afternoon,
especially for areas south of I-20. Showers and storms should
gradually level off in coverage tonight, but remain persistent
across southern areas. This leads us into a potentially very wet
Monday as tropical moisture continues to stream into our
area./SAS/

Monday and Tuesday: Rain chances will increase for the beginning
of the work week as deep layer southerly flow draws tropical
moisture northward across the area. For the time being, Monday
looks to be the best day for rain chances with tropical showers
and embedded storms spreading northward through much of the day.
Rain coverage for Tuesday is less certain, as there are increasing
signals that showers may be anchored closer to the Gulf Coast,
but scattered showers will still be possible within the tropical
airmass over our area. Even drier guidance solutions mostly keep a
good deal of cloud cover around into Tuesday. While PWs
approaching 2 in. suggest potential for locally heavy downpours,
model guidance has trended decided lower with storm total rain
amounts for our area, keeping potential for flooding more to our
south and west. The upside to the increasing clouds and rain is
we`ll get a brief break from the above normal heat, with highs
remaining in the 80s to around 90 for many areas both Monday and
Tuesday.

Wednesday through Saturday: By Wednesday, the Southeast ridge
will begin to build back into our area, with the tropical moisture
plume shifting westward. Rain chances will trend back downward,
with mostly dry conditions over the latter half of the work week.
However, there will be a corresponding increase in temperatures
with highs returning to the mid to upper 90s again by Friday and
Saturday. Gulf moisture will gradually creep back northward into
south MS and south LA by next weekend with mainly diurnal rain
chances returning across southern zones.

NHC continues to monitor potential for tropical development over
the southwestern Gulf next week, but this activity is expected to
track mainly westward and away from our region. /DL/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. High
clouds will gradually begin to build in to the south and east
later this morning into this afternoon. Some scattered showers and
some storms are possible this afternoon at southern sites, HBG,
PIB and HEZ. Coverage of showers should diminish to a few isolated
showers tonight. Winds will prevail from the southeast around 5
to 10 mph./SAS/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       94  73  88  72 /  30  20  70  10
Meridian      96  72  90  71 /  40  20  60  10
Vicksburg     95  74  89  73 /  20  20  60  10
Hattiesburg   92  73  88  73 /  60  30  80  10
Natchez       93  72  86  71 /  40  30  80  20
Greenville    98  76  91  73 /   0  10  60  10
Greenwood     97  75  90  73 /  10  10  60  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SAS/DL