Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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633 FXUS64 KJAN 211541 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1041 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 1040 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 The forecast is generally on track and no significant adjustments were needed in the morning forecast update. Per capping in the area morning raobs, the potential for deep convection today is negligible, but a few showers could develop over southwest portions of the area during peak heating, so have maintained the small rain chances there for this afternoon. /EC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Today and Tonight...no big changes to the forecast. Warm and muggy conditions will continue. Winds will be light, so places where mid 90s are likely, it may feel a little closer to 100. Weak disturbances moving across the Gulf were pushing a few clouds into the region, so that may help to lower temperatures slightly. Some models in the latest run show some small rain chances developing in the west/southwest. Added isolated showers and thunderstorms to the Natchez area, so brief showers and maybe a thunderstorm could bring some relief to heat. For now rain chances are 20 percent or less and any activity should dissipate by early evening. Otherwise, it should be generally clear. Guidance came in with temperatures a few degrees warmer for today, so heat index values may top out near 100 this afternoon. Overnight temperatures in the lower to mid 70s, will make it a challenge to stay cool also. This weekend: Strong ridging both at the surface and aloft will hold sway this weekend, resulting in mainly dry and increasingly warm conditions with temps beginning to tease the triple digit mark in some areas. However, we will begin to see signs of a change on Sunday as low level flow becomes more southerly and dewpoints in the 70s hang around for more of the daytime hours. This will result in heat indices approaching critical thresholds, with heat stress becoming an increasing concern to begin the new week. Next work week: The ridge will begin to shift westward, with increasing troughing over the Atlantic states. This will result in NW upper flow for our region and increasing prevalence of mid/upper disturbances. Meanwhile moisture will continue to increase throughout the column, and combined with sufficient forcing and plentiful instability, it will result in an upward trend in rain chances over the first half of next week. Initially, the eastern half of the area will be favored for higher PoPs as some influence from the ridge persists farther west. However, the ridge will continue to retrograde, and by Wednesday into Thursday, guidance continues to suggest a more pronounced shortwave and potential cold front will bring greater rain and thunderstorm chances areawide. If the cold front does make it this far south, it would bring an intrusion of drier air but have less impact on actual temperatures. Before rain and clouds become more common during the middle of the week, the combination of increasing humidity with preexisting hot conditions will yield an uptick in heat indices and associated heat stress concerns on Monday and Tuesday. We continue to advertise an elevated heat stress risk in our HWO graphics, and it is possible a heat advisory may eventually be needed for this time frame. Beyond Tuesday, this threat will become much more conditional upon coverage && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 There were still a few clouds hanging around, but VFR conditions are expected to prevail at most sites. Winds will be light, generally less than 5 mph. Models show some rain around Natchez this afternoon, but will hold on adding anything to the forecast at this time. Rain chances are small generally 20 percent or less. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 94 71 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 95 69 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 93 71 95 73 / 10 0 10 0 Hattiesburg 95 71 98 74 / 0 0 10 0 Natchez 92 71 95 72 / 20 10 10 0 Greenville 95 73 98 75 / 10 0 10 0 Greenwood 95 72 97 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ EC/07/