710
FXUS64 KJAN 201730
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 1021 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

The forecast remains on track thus no major changes were made to the
forecast package. The quiet conditions this morning will persist
throughout today. An H5 ridge centered over texas with the axis
stretching well into the northeast will continue the northwesterly
flow aloft promoting a drying trend in the mid-levels. As a result
temperatures will be slightly warmer than previous days by several
degrees, with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s across the
CWA./KP/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

Today and Tonight: The near term forecast is one of persistence as
ridging surface and aloft will remain dominant through tonight. This
will help result in dry weather and warmer than normal temperatures.
Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed our CWA on the
eastern periphery of a 591dam high centered over Texas and Mexico.
This high will change very little through tonight and maintain a dry
northerly flow aloft over our CWA. Early morning surface analysis
still had a weak 1014mb surface ridge oriented northeast-southwest
across our CWA. This surface ridge will remain in place and weaken
slightly through tonight as well. This will result in a very light
low level flow across our CWA and continue to limit the return of
Gulf moisture. Together these features will help temperatures top
out warmer than normal again this afternoon; in the lower 90s.
Saturday morning lows will be in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees
again. /22/

Saturday through next Thursday...High pressure, both at the surface
and aloft, will reside across the forecast area through the weekend
and into early next next.  This`ll result in quiet weather across
the region during this timeframe. Humid conditions will persist with
dew points generally mixing into the upper 60s to around 70 each
day.  Highs Saturday through Monday will remain toasty and in the
low and middle 90s.  Lows through Monday night will range from the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

Tuesday through Thursday, rain chances begin to return to the
forecast, particularly on Wednesday. A trough is currently
advertised to shift east into and through the region during this
time.  This scenario will cause a frontal boundary to likewise shift
east into and through the forecast area, bringing isolated to
scattered showers along with it Tuesday night through Wednesday
night. As the front clears the CWA Thursday, rain chances come to an
end, other than across far Southeast Mississippi, with some slightly
drier conditions returning to the forecast area.

Lastly, models continue to indicated the potential for tropical
development over the Western Caribbean/southern Gulf of Mexico late
next work week into early next weekend.  While models have been
consistent in this development, they`ve been quite inconsistent on a
run-to-run basis in terms of this potential system`s track and
timing due to both where the system will be when it develops and how
it`ll react to the passing of the aforementioned trough.  All of
this is still a week out. So please continue to pay close attention
to the most up-to-date forecast for the latest information
concerning this potential. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

VFR conditions and a light wind will prevail through the TAF
period./KP/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       70  93  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      68  94  69  93 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     69  94  71  92 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   70  95  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Natchez       70  93  70  91 /   0   0   0   0
Greenville    68  93  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     70  95  71  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

KP/22/19