884
FXUS64 KJAN 200250 AAB
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
950 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New MESOSCALE UPDATE...

.MESOSCALE UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Strong surface ridging pattern over the Mid-Atlantic and TN Valley
continue to keep calm weather and near seasonal temperatures over
the ArkLaMiss region. GOES-16 shows some high clouds scattered over
the area, however rain is not expected as easterly flow pushes
moisture out of the region. Partly to mostly clear skies with light,
easterly winds and overnight temperatures in the upper 60s/lower 70s
are expected. No adjustments were made and updates are out. /SW/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The governing feature driving the overall pattern through Sunday
will be the stout mid/upper level ridge over the Ohio and TN
valleys. While not immediately contributing to hot conditions for
us, it will help drive deep layer dry air from the east which will
limit precip chances into this weekend. Low level flow will be
mainly out of the SE and E during this time which is typically not
supportive of higher heat. By Sat-Sun, this ridge aloft will
begin to break down which will get replaced by more of a NW/N flow
regime for early/mid part of next week along with a increase in
deep layer moisture resulting in better precip chances for Mon-
Wed.

Sensible weather elements: Look for more sunshine each day and
ultimately warmer MaxT. Friday we will see more mid 90s and then
more of mid/upper 90s for the weekend. This higher heat occurs as we
see more influences from the ridge and as it breaks down. Lower
level flow will shift and have more of a westerly component starting
around Sunday with more of this low level flow regime established
for Mon-Tue. This is a regime that supports hotter type temps and
the guidance is picking up on this. Additionally, better moisture
will steadily move in and will result in higher Td for early week.
So the combination of hot temps and increasing humidity will result
in higher Heat Indices (HI). Data supports HI in the 100-105 range
for Sunday with an up tick in HI values for Mon-Tue in the 105-110
range. Due to this and the fact we`ve seen a consistent signal, will
add graphics and messaging to cover this threat for those periods. I
mentioned the increase in precip potential for Mon-Wed, this is due
to lowering mid/upper level heights as more of a weakness develops
while the earlier noted ridge establishes itself more to our west.
Not really expecting any strong storms, but will need to watch
parameters a bit as warm mid level temps will cool some by Tue to
help steepen lapse rates some. Additionally, anytime we see
mid/upper 90s with higher Td and then get convection, there`s always
more cape and thus some potential for strong/severe storms as a few
more favorable ingredients that end up in-place. By next week,
better rain chances will be welcome and likely needed as rainfall
deficits will be adding up. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Light SHRA are psbl the next hour for southern TAF sites but low
enough coverage to not add this TAF cycle. Expect VFR flight
categories & SCT-BKN mid-high stratus, with light easterly wind,
up to 10mph sustained & gusts briefly exceeding 15mph Thurs aftn,
through the next 24 hours. /DC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       71  91  71  94 /   0   0   0   0
Meridian      69  91  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
Vicksburg     72  91  71  93 /   0   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   71  92  72  94 /  20   0   0  10
Natchez       71  91  70  93 /  10   0   0  10
Greenville    72  94  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
Greenwood     71  93  71  96 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

CME/CME/DC