430
FXUS64 KJAN 280044
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
744 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Tonight and tomorrow:

Showers and storms should wind down past sunset tonight given the
diurnal nature of activity. Low level moisture could promote some
fog and low stratus development, but should be isolated and confined
to the eastern half of the area.

A stalled boundary draped across the Pine Belt should lead to some
redevlopment of showers and storms tomorrow afternoon. Weak lapse
rates will once again be the question, thus severity will be
limited. Much like today, heating could modify this, and given
around 20 kts of flow and the presence of a boundary, there could be
an isolated stronger storm. Activity should taper off with waning
heating.

Further north and west, upper ridging begins to build in and will
limit rain chances. Temperatures and dewpoints will also be on the
rise, resulting in heat indices in the Delta around 105-108.
Given this, have opted to issue a heat advisory for tomorrow
afternoon and will continue to message elevated heat stress in
HWO. Another stretch of greater heat is likely into the weekend.
/SAS/

Saturday through Thursday:

The primary weather concerns through the middle of next week will be
dangerous heat and mainly diurnal thunderstorm activity. The
prevailing synoptic feature in the region will be the subtropical
ridge. The core of the ridge will begin the weekend flattened and
centered over the Southern High Plains. This will favor continued
heat concerns especially for Louisiana, Arkansas, and western
Mississippi where the ridge`s strength will be most pronounced and
low-level thermal profile enhances warming potential. Closer to teh
Gulf Coast, more tropical conditions and easterly wave activity will
keep the chances for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.
As the upper-level ridge pivots eastward along the Gulf Coast, a
shortwave trough over the Midwest will nudge a cold front into our
region late Sunday into Monday. Rain chances will increase Sunday
with convergence ahead of the front, and then expect humidity and
accompanying higher heat indices and POPs to be confined to the far
south on Monday. Tuesday will be transitional as the ridge moves
overhead, but some recovery of humidity should occur. And then for
Wednesday and Thursday we should be on the western periphery of the
upper-level ridge with surface flow returning out of the south. Heat
and and least a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will
then return areawide, with afternoon sea breeze becoming a feature
those days. /NF/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 738 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Sct shra will diminish early this evening, but a humid boundary
layer may support patchy fog/low stratus as we go into late
night/early Fri morning. While explicit guidance isn`t bullish on
low stratus development, can`t rule out considerable IFR coverage
in this type of set-up. Category restrictions will improve in the
late morning/aftn, with redevelopment of sct SHRA/VCTS expected
mainly southeast half of the forecast area during peak heating.
/EC/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       73  90  75  92 /  20  40  10  30
Meridian      72  91  74  94 /  20  50  20  50
Vicksburg     73  93  76  94 /  10  20   0  20
Hattiesburg   75  93  76  95 /  30  70  20  60
Natchez       72  91  75  93 /  10  30  10  30
Greenville    73  93  78  97 /   0  10   0  10
Greenwood     73  92  76  94 /  10  20   0  20

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for MSZ018-019-025-
     034-035-040-041-047.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Friday for ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

SAS20/NF/EC