Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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524 FXUS64 KJAN 161041 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 541 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 254 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 Today and tonight... Hot temperatures will persist today with heat indices around 105 still possible. However, temperatures should be somewhat capped due to increasing moisture advection into the area. Still, a limited graphic for heat stress is being messaged for today as well. Given this moisture, along with a wave pushing northward, scattered showers and storms will be possible this afternoon, especially for areas south of I-20. Showers and storms should gradually level off in coverage tonight, but remain persistent across southern areas. This leads us into a potentially very wet Monday as tropical moisture continues to stream into our area./SAS/ Monday and Tuesday: Rain chances will increase for the beginning of the work week as deep layer southerly flow draws tropical moisture northward across the area. For the time being, Monday looks to be the best day for rain chances with tropical showers and embedded storms spreading northward through much of the day. Rain coverage for Tuesday is less certain, as there are increasing signals that showers may be anchored closer to the Gulf Coast, but scattered showers will still be possible within the tropical airmass over our area. Even drier guidance solutions mostly keep a good deal of cloud cover around into Tuesday. While PWs approaching 2 in. suggest potential for locally heavy downpours, model guidance has trended decided lower with storm total rain amounts for our area, keeping potential for flooding more to our south and west. The upside to the increasing clouds and rain is we`ll get a brief break from the above normal heat, with highs remaining in the 80s to around 90 for many areas both Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday through Saturday: By Wednesday, the Southeast ridge will begin to build back into our area, with the tropical moisture plume shifting westward. Rain chances will trend back downward, with mostly dry conditions over the latter half of the work week. However, there will be a corresponding increase in temperatures with highs returning to the mid to upper 90s again by Friday and Saturday. Gulf moisture will gradually creep back northward into south MS and south LA by next weekend with mainly diurnal rain chances returning across southern zones. NHC continues to monitor potential for tropical development over the southwestern Gulf next week, but this activity is expected to track mainly westward and away from our region. /DL/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail with some increasing high clouds this afternoon. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon at southern sites, HBG, HEZ, and PIB. Showers should taper off after midnight. Winds will prevail from the southeast around 5 to 10 mph./SAS/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 94 73 88 72 / 30 20 70 10 Meridian 96 72 90 71 / 40 20 60 10 Vicksburg 95 74 89 73 / 20 20 60 10 Hattiesburg 92 73 88 73 / 60 30 80 10 Natchez 93 72 86 71 / 40 30 80 20 Greenville 98 76 91 73 / 0 10 60 10 Greenwood 97 75 90 73 / 10 10 60 10 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ SAS20/DL/SAS20