Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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561 FXUS64 KJAN 210517 AAC AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1217 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 936 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 No adjustments have been made to the forecast for this evening. Quiet conditions are expected to occur across the ArkLaMiss region for the next several hours as sounding analysis from this evening indicate subtle capping due to subsidence and drier air aloft around 850 mb. Because of this, cloud cover is forecasted to slightly increase across N/NE portions of the CWA for a few hours before dissipating around midnight. Overnight lows will drop into the 70s with areas east of I-55 dipping into the upper 60s. Updates are out. /CR/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 456 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Tonight through next Friday... Tonight through Monday: Quiet and dry conditions will persist through tonight as an H5 ridge centered over Texas with the axis stretching well into the northeast will continue the northwesterly flow aloft promoting a drying trend in the mid-levels. Northwesterly flow aloft will limit return flow from the gulf as PWs area wide struggle to reach the 1.5in range with a slot of drier air across the southern portions of the CWA. Overnight temps will be be slightly warmer with low temperatures than previous days dropping into the high 60s to right around 70 areawide. The ridge will weaken overnight into tomorrow as it continues moving slightly eastward allowing for high pressure to move into the area both at the surface and aloft. With ridging across the southeastern states expected to continue into early next week, this will result in persistent quiet conditions with high temperatures daily being in the low 90s and low temperatures daily in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Tuesday Through next Friday: By Tuesday the ridge looks to break down with an upper trough flattening out across the southeastern states. This will allow for energy to move across the Rockies and lift into the Mid-MS River Valley. As the dominant ridge breaks down, return flow will increase with better low level moisture flowing into the area. In addition, there will also be a weak front looking to drop into the area from the north. With all those factors in mind, the area will retain low end PoPs (20-30%) through the end of the forecast period. It is also worth noting that towards the end of the forecast period there is increasing uncertainty of a potential tropical disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico that has a 50% chance of cyclone formation in the next 7 days. However global models haven`t shown much consensus of the strength or possible positioning if it were to evolve later next week in the Gulf of Mexico. As we progress closer in time, we will provide additional information on any potential tropical concerns. /KP/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Winds will be calm overnight, but will become southeasterly at around 5 knots by late morning. /19/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 93 71 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 94 69 93 70 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 94 70 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 95 70 94 71 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 93 69 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 93 70 91 71 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 94 71 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ /19