Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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496 FXUS64 KJAN 202156 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 456 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 456 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Tonight through next Friday... Tonight through Monday: Quiet and dry conditions will persist through tonight as an H5 ridge centered over Texas with the axis stretching well into the northeast will continue the northwesterly flow aloft promoting a drying trend in the mid-levels. Northwesterly flow aloft will limit return flow from the gulf as PWs area wide struggle to reach the 1.5in range with a slot of drier air across the southern portions of the CWA. Overnight temps will be be slightly warmer with low temperatures than previous days dropping into the high 60s to right around 70 areawide. The ridge will weaken overnight into tomorrow as it continues moving slightly eastward allowing for high pressure to move into the area both at the surface and aloft. With ridging across the southeastern states expected to continue into early next week, this will result in persistent quiet conditions with high temperatures daily being in the low 90s and low temperatures daily in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Tuesday Through next Friday: By Tuesday the ridge looks to break down with an upper trough flattening out across the southeastern states. This will allow for energy to move across the Rockies and lift into the Mid-MS River Valley. As the dominant ridge breaks down, return flow will increase with better low level moisture flowing into the area. In addition, there will also be a weak front looking to drop into the area from the north. With all those factors in mind, the area will retain low end PoPs (20-30%) through the end of the forecast period. It is also worth noting that towards the end of the forecast period there is increasing uncertainty of a potential tropical disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico that has a 50% chance of cyclone formation in the next 7 days. However global models haven`t shown much consensus of the strength or possible positioning if it were to evolve later next week in the Gulf of Mexico. As we progress closer in time, we will provide additional information on any potential tropical concerns. /KP/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 VFR conditions and a light wind will prevail through the TAF period./KP/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 70 93 71 92 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 68 94 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 69 94 70 92 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 70 95 70 94 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 70 93 69 91 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 68 93 70 91 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 70 94 71 93 / 0 0 0 0 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ KP