895
FXUS62 KJAX 291813
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
213 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Scattered to numerous showers/t-storms will continue through the afternoon
and into the evening, gradually decreasing in coverage after dark.
Low temperatures Tonight will be in the mid 70s inland, upper 70s
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

A pretty typical summertime convective pattern will continue
through the rest of the weekend, as plentiful moisture will remain
in place with a weak layer flow. This will allow the sea breeze to
penetrate modestly inland, and therefore expect the highest
chances for showers and t`storms to be west of I-95. With the
soupy airmass in place (even for Florida standards), we will be
flirting with heat advisory criteria in some areas despite temps
mainly in the low to mid 90s, as dew points reach the mid to upper
70s.

A cold front approaches from the north Sunday Night and into
Monday before stalling and becoming typically diffuse over central
GA. High mean layer moisture will remain in place, and with the
southeasterly sea breeze also getting an uptick ahead of the
boundary. Therefore, numerous diurnal convection will be expected
once again, especially into southeast GA closer to the weak
boundary, as well as inland west of about HWY 301 with the
slightly stronger onshore flow. Similar temps and humidity
compared to Sunday as well should once again borderline advisory
levels for many.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Chances for showers and t`storms overall look a bit lower for the
long term period. High pressure aloft near the northern Gulf Coast
shifts east/northeastward through the end of the week, which will
introduce some subtle subsidence as well as trying to mix in
slightly drier air aloft. Aforementioned high pressure and rising
heights at the upper levels will also start and increasing trend
in high temps mid to late week, with slightly above average
temperatures looking likely for Independence Day and into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 103 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Scattered SHRA/TSRA have developed well inland across ne
FL...expect coverage to increase over TAF sites through the
afternoon, with isolated activity continuing into the evening.
South to southeast winds 5-8 kts this afternoon, with light and
variable winds Tonight, becoming west 5-8kts by late Sunday
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Winds will remain southerly through Monday the rest of the
weekend with high pressure centered well NE of the waters, with
winds near coast becoming southeasterly each afternoon with sea
breeze. Seas will be 2-3 ft during this period. A weak cold front
will move down over the waters and dissipate Tuesday into
Wednesday, with a more east to southeast wind expected then.
Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms are
expected over the waters each day.

Rip Currents: Another low-end moderate risk of rip currents
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  75  94  76  94 /  20  70  60  70
SSI  77  91  78  91 /  30  60  50  60
JAX  75  94  75  94 /  30  70  50  60
SGJ  75  91  76  93 /  40  70  40  50
GNV  73  92  73  92 /  40  70  60  70
OCF  75  91  74  93 /  40  70  60  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$