Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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249 FXUS62 KJAX 190515 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 115 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 152 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Still anticipating higher storm coverage near the northeast Florida coast this afternoon and early evening, with gusty winds being the primary threat. By about 8pm, most convection will simmer down or be offshore, and with calm winds and higher humidity, patchy inland fog will be possible. Lows will be in the upper 60s across most of inland SE GA, and lower 70s elsewhere tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 152 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Thursday, the surface front will edge southward across NE FL through the day and interact with diurnal instability and sea breezes to produce scattered showers and isolated storms mainly across NE FL, with a another area of rain chances (20%) across coastal SE GA in the afternoon under a drier and more stable NNW flow aloft. Friday, steering flow transitions to NE with drier air limiting shower and thunderstorm coverage. Continued with a low chance 20% chance of showers and isolated storms across the NE FL St. Johns River Basin mainly during the afternoon as surface winds become northeast and breezy near the coast. Patchy inland late night fog is possible both nights. Temperatures will trend near normal values with highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 152 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Breezy northeast to east winds return this weekend with surface fronts south of the region and high pressure to the northeast. This regime will bring coastal showers onshore, with some expansion with diurnal heating across inland NE FL in the afternoon. Although localized heavy rainfall could cause a return of flooding issues, weekend showers appear more transient with less deep available moisture compared to last week`s coastal deluges. With the return of breezy onshore flow, hazardous surf zones conditions develop once again with a high rip current risk and minor tidal flooding for our coastal communities and moderate river flooding potential within the St. Johns River basin. The strength of ENE winds weaken Monday into Tuesday as the surface ridge center edges southward and weakens coastal convergence, but a coastal trough with increased moisture returns Tuesday into Wednesday with a return of morning coastal showers expanding inland into the afternoon with isolated thunderstorm potential. Temperatures will trend near to just below seasonal values. The tropics are expected to become more active next week, with a tropical system possibly forming in the southern Gulf of Mexico and drifting northward. Use this weekend to restock supply kits, review family evacuation plans and considering some shelter maintenance like trimming trees. Monitor official tropical forecasts from the National Hurricane Center at hurricanes.gov and local emergency management officials. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 115 AM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Patchy fog and low stratus will develop across most sites except SGJ with MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys anticipated mainly between 07-12Z. LIFR conditions will be possible at VQQ and GNV. Fog will lift and dissipate after 12Z. Calm winds overnight become north- northwesterly as a cold front moves through the area this morning. Easterly winds develop at the coastal and Duval TAF sites between 17-20Z as the weak Atlantic sea breeze shifts inland. Low chances for rain this afternoon with maybe a shower passing by a TAF site but chances are too low to include at this time. && .MARINE... Issued at 152 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 A weak frontal boundary and pressure pattern will linger over the region through the middle of the week. The sea breeze returns with afternoon wind shifts to onshore for the nearshore waters through Thursday. A frontal passage is expected late this week with high pressure building down the eastern seaboard by this weekend. This will lead to an increase in Northeast winds by Friday and into the weekend with Small Craft Advisory headlines possible. Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk for NE FL and SE GA beaches continues Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 355 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2024 Have expired the Coastal Flood advisories along most of the NE FL Atlantic coast and downgraded Duval county to an advisory with lighter onshore winds anticipated for this afternoon. Lingering trapped tides and higher astronomical tides will continue minor to moderate coastal flooding within the St. Johns through at least mid-week. The moderate flooding will be mainly confined to areas south of Jacksonville. The higher tides with this full moon cycle will continue into September 26th with the peak levels between Sept. 19th and 21st. Will likely need to reissue a Coastal Flood Advisory along the Atlantic coast for Friday into the weekend with the high tides and a surge of northeasterly winds. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 88 67 87 66 / 20 0 0 0 SSI 85 72 83 72 / 10 0 10 0 JAX 88 71 87 71 / 20 0 10 0 SGJ 88 73 86 73 / 20 10 20 10 GNV 90 69 89 68 / 30 0 20 0 OCF 91 71 90 71 / 40 0 20 0 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Warning until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ033-038-132- 137. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for FLZ125-225-325. GA...None. AM...None. && $$