951
FXUS62 KJAX 220537
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
137 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure will stretch down the east coast and across the area
Tonight. Skies along the NE FL coast will be partly cloudy,
otherwise skies will trend toward clear. Temperatures will have a
broad range Tonight, due to onshore flow across the relatively
warmer coastal waters. Lows in the mid 60s will be common inland,
and in the lower to mid 70s along the Atlantic coast.

Coastal Flood Advisory to continue through at least Sunday
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

High pressure over the region will continue to dominate the
weather pattern through Monday with PWAT values measuring between
0.9 and 1.6 inches. Prevailing flow will be primarily out of the
north and northwest as high pressure gradually shifts more towards
the east. Potential for isolated coastal showers to develop along
Flagler and St Johns Counties through this period with a chance
for patchy early morning fog to develop over inland areas. High
temperatures for the end of the weekend and into the beginning of
next week will be in the lower 90s over inland areas and in the
upper 80s along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will
drop down into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Initially dry weather will give way to more moist conditions as
high pressure continues moving eastward and prevailing flow shifts
about to become more out of the south, resulting in increased
chances for showers and storms for the end of the week. Potential
tropical formation in the gulf is still listed as having a 60%
chance of formation in the next 7 days by the NHC, however the
precise track and timing of any possible tropical developments
remain ambiguous at this time. Daily high temperatures will
experience a cooling trend this as the week progresses with max
temps dropping to be below the seasonal average by the end of the
forecast period.

Monitor official tropical forecasts from the National Hurricane
Center at hurricanes.gov and local emergency management officials.

&&

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 AM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

Extremely localized restrictions at VQQ continue until sunrise
while VFR prevails elsewhere. Lighter northeast winds are expected
today but will trend easterly as high pressure sets up to the
east. Conditions become calm this evening and another period of
patchy fog is possible between 06-13z Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

High pressure building from the north will usher a brief surge of
northeast winds across the waters today and elevate seas; small
craft are urged to exercise caution. A weaker pressure pattern
will begin Sunday and continue through the middle of next week as
high pressure extends to the east. Late next week, an area of
disturbed weather in the western Caribbean may develop into a
broad tropical system as it tracks northward into the Gulf of
Mexico. Interests are urged to monitor the National Hurricane
Center for forecasts and updates with the potential tropical
disturbance next week.

Rip Currents: High Risk for area beaches today becoming Moderate
overnight and into Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  90  69  91  69 /  10   0   0   0
SSI  85  73  86  74 /  10   0   0   0
JAX  88  72  90  72 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  86  74  88  74 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  90  70  91  69 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  91  72  93  72 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ033-
     038-124-125-132-133-137-138-225-325.

GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for GAZ154-
     166.

AM...None.
&&

$$