575
FXUS62 KJAX 211812
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
212 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

High pressure over the Carolinas will continue to build SW this
afternoon and settle over the SE US states tonight. This will
continue the breezy onshore/NE flow along the Atlantic Coast of NE
FL/SE GA this afternoon with any isolated shower activity
remaining from St. Augustine southward through tonight, with
scattered showers and isolated storms over the NE FL Atlantic
Coastal waters. Breezy NE winds are expected at the Atlantic
Coastal areas this afternoon in the 15-20G25-30 mph range and
slightly less over inland areas at 10-15G20-25 mph. As the high
settles over the region tonight, expect winds to decrease after
sunset, remaining in the 5-10 mph range along the Atlantic Coast
and dropping off to less than 5 mph over inland areas. Low temps
falling into the mid to upper 60s over inland areas, light winds
and clear skies should allow for another night of inland
patchy/areas of fog along with locally dense fog expected towards
sunrise Sunday morning. Lows in the lower 70s along the Atlantic
Coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

High pressure over the region will continue to dominate the
weather pattern through Monday with PWAT values measuring between
0.9 and 1.6 inches. Prevailing flow will be primarily out of the
north and northwest as high pressure gradually shifts more towards
the east. Potential for isolated coastal showers to develop along
Flagler and St Johns Counties through this period with a chance
for patchy early morning fog to develop over inland areas. High
temperatures for the end of the weekend and into the beginning of
next week will be in the lower 90s over inland areas and in the
upper 80s along the coastline. Overnight low temperatures will
drop down into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Initially dry weather will give way to more moist conditions as
high pressure continues moving eastward and prevailing flow shifts
about to become more out of the south, resulting in increased
chances for showers and storms for the end of the week. Potential
tropical formation in the gulf is still listed as having a 60%
chance of formation in the next 7 days by the NHC, however the
precise track and timing of any possible tropical developments
remain ambiguous at this time. Daily high temperatures will
experience a cooling trend this as the week progresses with max
temps dropping to be below the seasonal average by the end of the
forecast period.

Monitor official tropical forecasts from the National Hurricane
Center at hurricanes.gov and local emergency management officials.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

Northeast winds have steadily increased today along with SCT to
occasionally BKN Cumulus cloud deck across all TAF sites in the
2500-3500 ft range which will continue until sunset, when the
diurnal uptick in clouds/winds will fade through the evening hours
with VFR conds through 06Z at all TAF sites. Light to near calm
winds over inland TAF sites will support IFR vsbys at VQQ and MVFR
vsbys at GNV under clear skies, while the rest of the TAF sites
will remain VFR through the night. Diurnal Cu clouds will develop
once again during the morning hours on Sunday, mainly in the 2000
to 3000 ft range, but will likely remain mostly SCT through 18Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2024

High pressure building from the north will usher a brief surge of
northeast winds across the waters today and elevate seas; small
craft are urged to exercise caution. A weaker pressure pattern
will begin Sunday and continue through the middle of next week as
high pressure extends to the east. Late next week, an area of
disturbed weather in the western Caribbean may develop into a
broad tropical system as it tracks northward into the Gulf of
Mexico. Interests are urged to monitor the National Hurricane
Center for forecasts and updates with the potential tropical
disturbance next week.

Rip Currents: High Risk for area beaches today becoming Moderate
overnight and into Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

A Coastal Flood Advisory continues for the St Johns River basin
(including the Intracoastal Waterway) and Atlantic coast of NE FL
through at least the next three high tide cycles. Localized areas
of low-end Moderate tidal flooding will be possible with this
early afternoon`s high tide within the St Johns River between the
Buckman Bridge and Mayport, including the Trout River. Lowering
astronomical tidal departures and weakening onshore flow will
lower tidal levels early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  65  90  69  91 /   0   0   0   0
SSI  71  85  73  86 /   0   0   0   0
JAX  67  88  72  90 /   0   0   0   0
SGJ  72  86  74  88 /  10   0   0   0
GNV  66  90  70  91 /   0   0   0   0
OCF  67  91  72  93 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ033-038-124-
     125-132-133-137-138-225-325.

     High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ124-
     125-133-138.

GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ154-166.

     High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM EDT this evening for GAZ154-
     166.

AM...None.
&&

$$