Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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265 FXUS62 KJAX 171016 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 616 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New AVIATION... .NEAR TERM... Issued at 102 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf High pressure ridge will remain centered to the northeast through Tonight. This will continue the prevailing onshore flow. The combination of weak waves moving through the flow, and diurnal heating will lead to isolated to scattered chances for convection. As waves move through, the tightened pressure gradient will result in elevated and gusty winds through the day. Winds will remain somewhat elevated Tonight due to pressure gradient, but will lose much of the gustiness once past the day time mixing. A few coastal showers/storms will be possible overnight, but expect much of this activity to remain over the waters. Highs Today will range from the upper 80s at the coast, to the lower 90s inland. For Tonight, lows will range from the lower to mid 70s inland to the upper 70s coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 102 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Tuesday...Not much change in the pattern as high pressure remains locked in north of the region and breezy to almost windy easterly flow will continue at 15-25G35-40mph range at the Atlantic Coast with a high risk of rip current and 10-20G30-35mph range over inland areas during the afternoon hours. This flow pattern will continue to stream rounds of scattered showers and isolated storms from the coastal waters and into land areas through the day with gusty winds the main threat from storm activity over inland areas during the afternoon hours. Temps at or slightly below normal levels with highs in the mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor and into the lower 90s over far inland areas. Tuesday Night...Breezy easterly flow continues along the Atlantic Coast with continued scattered showers and isolated storms pushing onshore, while partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions will exist over inland areas. Lows in the 70-75 range inland and 75-80 along the Atlantic Coastal areas as the breezy winds keep temps elevated. Wednesday...Breezy onshore/easterly flow continue at 15-25G35-40mph range at the Atlantic Coast with a high risk of rip current and 10-20G30-35mph range over inland areas during the afternoon hours. This flow pattern will continue to stream rounds of scattered showers and isolated storms from the coastal waters and into land areas through the day with gusty winds the main threat from storm activity over inland areas during the afternoon hours. Temps at or slightly below normal levels with highs in the mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor and into the lower 90s over far inland areas. Wednesday Night...Breezy easterly flow continues along the Atlantic Coast with continued scattered showers and isolated storms pushing onshore, while partly cloudy and mainly dry conditions will exist over inland areas. Lows in the 70-75 range inland and 75-80 along the Atlantic Coastal areas as the breezy winds keep temps elevated. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 102 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Thursday...GFS/ECMWF model runs are still trying to spin up a low pressure system underneath mid level trough/disturbance pushing quickly westward from the Bahamas into the FL peninsula. Still way too early if this system becomes actual tropical low pressure system or more likely a disorganized area of widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms with a locally heavy rainfall and strong gusty wind potential during this period. Bottom line during this period will be an increase in rainfall chances to 50-80% with numerous to widespread showers and embedded heavy storms pushing onshore at times with strong gusty winds as the main threat. Max temps will remain at or slightly below normal levels with the increased rainfall chances with highs in the mid/upper 80s along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor and still reaching into the lower 90s over inland areas. With most of the local NE FL/SE GA area having below normal rainfall so far this month, this will be welcome rainfall in many locations, but localized flood potential will mainly exist in urban areas and along the Atlantic Coast during high tide cycles and the stronger onshore flow may produce minor tidal flooding along the Atlantic Coast beaches with the approach of the full moon phase. Friday/Saturday/Sunday...In the wake of departing low pressure system, a weaker high pressure ridge will build in just north of the region and still expect near breezy East-Southeast winds at 10-15G20-25 mph, but more normal East Coast sea breeze convection expected as it moves inland both days and lingering deeper tropical moisture will still lead to above normal rainfall chances in the 40-70% range with daily scattered to numerous showers and storms. Max temps bounce back to slightly above normal levels with highs in the upper 80s/near 90 along the Atlantic Coast/I-95 corridor with lower to middle 90s over inland areas. By the weekend the steering flow begins to become more southerly and helps to push afternoon convection closer to the Atlantic Coast. The increase in Max temps back to above normal levels will push daily maximum heat indices closer to 105F at just heat advisory levels. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Restrictions in stratus coming off the Atlantic will be possible early this period. Otherwise, prevailing VFR conditions forecast Today. Gusty winds are expected at all area TAF sites, especially near the coast. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected from mid morning through the afternoon. Brief restrictions in and near these storms are possible. This convection will largely dissipate with loss of diurnal heating in the evening, but will linger over the coastal waters into the night. && .MARINE... Issued at 102 AM EDT Mon Jun 17 2024 A ridge of high pressure centered to the northeast will persist through mid week. Small Craft Advisory level conditions to begin late Tuesday. A wave of low pressure is expected to move west across area Thursday into Friday. At this time, elevated winds and seas along with higher than normal rain chances can be expected with this system. Rip Currents: High through at least mid week && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 93 70 90 69 / 10 10 10 10 SSI 88 78 85 76 / 30 20 40 30 JAX 90 73 88 73 / 30 20 50 20 SGJ 88 76 87 75 / 30 20 60 40 GNV 92 71 91 71 / 20 20 40 10 OCF 92 72 92 71 / 20 20 50 10 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ124-125- 133-138. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for GAZ154-166. AM...None. && $$