935
FXUS62 KJAX 251720
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
120 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 109 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

The pattern will continue through the night with region between high
to the east and trough to the north northwest. Most convection will
dissipate this evening with loss of diurnal heating. Lows in the
middle 70s will be common.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

The region will be between high pressure to the east southeast, and
a trough to the north northwest Wednesday through Thursday. With
this pattern, the low level flow will continue form the southwest.
Convection will initiate during the late morning hours, likely first
on the Gulf sea breeze, then move inland during the afternoon hours.
The east coast sea breeze will also activate during the afternoon
hours, and move inland. The breezes will meet over the east central
portion of the area, where the greatest chances for precipitation is
expected. Much of the convection which does develop will diminish
during the evening hours Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will
continue above normal through Thursday.

For Thursday night through Friday, the high will start to build more
toward the east northeast, with the trough remaining to the
northwest. With this change in pattern the low level flow will come
more from the south. Friday will be another stormy day, with sea
breeze interactions enhancing coverage. Temperatures will continue
above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 109 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Fairly persistent troughing will remain to the north northwest this
period. High pressure will be centered to the east early this
period, then to the east Sunday through Tuesday. The movement of the
high will result in changes in the low level flow, with some affect
on the overall movement of storms and initial development zones. In
general it will be a stormy period, with much of the convection
during the day time hours. Temperatures will continue above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Scattered SHRA/isolated TSRA have already developed across
portions of NE FL...expecting coverage to increase near inland
TAF sites during the 19z-23z period with sea breeze boundaries
coming together in the central portion of FL peninsula. Activity
will likely continue well after 00z while gradually decreasing in
coverage. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 109 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Fairly persistent troughing will be north northwest of the area
through the upcoming weekend. High pressure ridge will be east of
the region through Wednesday, then to the east southeast into
Thursday. The high will be located to the northeast Friday through
the weekend.

Rip Currents: Moderate Today, low Wednesday for NE FL.
              Low through Wednesday for SE GA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  98  74  94 /  10  50  20  60
SSI  78  92  77  94 /  20  40  20  50
JAX  73  96  74  95 /  40  70  20  60
SGJ  76  93  76  94 /  20  70  30  60
GNV  74  94  73  92 /  30  90  20  60
OCF  75  93  76  92 /  30  90  30  70

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-023-024-030-
     031-033-035-038-120-124-125-132-133-136>138-140-220-225-232-
     236-237-240-322-325-340-422-425-522.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ136-151>154-162-
     163-165-166-250-264-350-364.

AM...None.
&&

$$