Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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410 FXUS62 KJAX 211747 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 147 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf The low pressure system (AL92 per NHC) continues to push west-northwest about 15 mph, located about 120 miles east of Jacksonville. The system has a chance to into a tropical depression but has a short window as it is expected to move ashore late today. At this time, it is not well organized as far as convection. Not much change in the impacts regardless as we still have enhanced chances of showers and possible scattered thunderstorms later today. The airmass is plenty moist, in fact at the high-end of climatology for PWAT at about 2.07 inches on the JAX sounding. Deep layer moisture extends to 16 kft...so plenty of moisture to produce locally heavy rainfall wherever showers or storms persist or congeal this aftn. The best chance of heavy rainfall is across parts of northeast FL. Breezy northeast winds expected for eastern zones at 15-20 mph, with gusts to about 30 mph at times. Potentially higher gusts around 35-40 mph in shower or t-storm activity. On the marine forecast, essentially little change with small craft advisories remaining in effect. Current wave and wind guidance pretty much on track with observations with slight both for seas and winds. Have extended the SCA for offshore GA waters into tonight based on seas of about 7 ft. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Invest 92-L is about 200 miles away from Jacksonville, and will continue to move towards the northeast Florida / southeast Georgia coast, with little time to organize further. There remains potential (50% chance) of this system developing into a short- lived Tropical Depression early this morning before making landfall in the late morning/early afternoon hours. Despite Tropical Depression formation or not, hazards will remain the same, heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and coastal impacts including rough surf, high rip currents, and minor beach erosion during high tide. Areas that have not received rainfall recently will see beneficial rainfall totals around 1-2" along and east of I-95 today, with locally higher amounts possible. Wind gusts are likely to stay below Wind Advisory today, with onshore gusts reaching around 30 mph. High temperatures will be a tad below normal for areas along and east of US-301, staying in the mid to upper 80s. West of US-301 will see highs in the lower 90s. Scattered showers will remain overnight along the east coast, with winds subsiding after sunset. Mild low temperatures forecast, only falling into the 70s area- wide with warmest lows on the coast. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Upper level ridge will be centered over the Gulf Coast states well west of our forecast area during this period. This supports near normal temperatures during the period, with scattered to numerous showers and t-storms with sea breeze interactions each day. High temperatures will be in the 90-95 range inland each day, with afternoon heat index values near 100, and upper 80s immediate coast. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Upper level ridge will shift eastward over the forecast area Tuesday and east of the area Wednesday, with an upper trough possibly moving over the area Thursday. Considerable uncertainty exists with strength and timing of this trough, with GFS more intense over the area compared to the ECM. Latest consensus guidance more in line with ECM in showing not much cooling Thursday with little reflection of a frontal passage. As a result, consensus guidance shows above normal temperatures the entire upcoming work week. Latest guidance suggests a fairly wet pattern for our area with daily bouts of scattered/numerous showers and t-storms with sea breeze interactions in moist environment. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 140 PM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 VFR and MVFR ceilings expected to persist next 24 hours as weak low pressure system just offshore northeast FL moves ashore by tonight. Occasional low vsby expected and have VCSH and TEMPO groups for the convection. TSRA probabilities expected to rise and peak by 21z/22z, and then fade. We can`t rule out some brief IFR chances late tonight and tonight. Expect more scattered TSRA on Saturday. Gusty northeast winds will continue along the coastal TAFs and will slowly diminish and back to the north as the low moves ashore. && .MARINE... Issued at 233 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024 Weak low pressure situated about 200 miles to the east-southeast of Jacksonville, Florida early Friday morning may organize into a Tropical Depression later this morning as it progresses west- northwestward across the Gulf Stream waters. Bands of gusty showers and embedded thunderstorms will increase in frequency and intensity during the predawn hours on Friday, with this activity continuing through late Friday afternoon before diminishing in coverage as this weak low pressure center progresses inland. Meanwhile, strong high pressure centered north of Bermuda will gradually weaken as it settles southward this weekend. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue throughout our local waters tonight and Friday, followed by winds and seas diminishing to Caution levels on Friday night and then below Caution criteria on Saturday. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop over our local waters this weekend and into next week as prevailing winds become southerly ahead of a weakening surface trough that will settle over the southeastern states through midweek. Rip Currents: High rip current risk and rough surf continues today for NE FL and SE GA beaches as elevated onshore winds persist. Moderate risk will be in place on Saturday as winds subside. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Fri Jun 21 2024...updated The Weather Prediction Center has a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall Saturday, as locally heavy rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches will be possible along the Interstate 95 corridor as Invest 92-L impacts our region with bands of heavy downpours. Rainfall amounts further inland will likely remain below one inch. Rainfall will be mostly beneficial, but there will be concerns for flooding at urban locations where rain bands train repeatedly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 91 73 94 / 20 80 30 60 SSI 78 87 76 91 / 60 80 60 70 JAX 74 91 73 93 / 50 90 50 80 SGJ 76 91 75 92 / 60 90 60 80 GNV 73 92 72 92 / 60 90 40 80 OCF 74 94 74 93 / 60 90 40 90 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ124-125-133- 138. High Surf Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for FLZ124-125- 133-138. GA...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for GAZ154-166. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ450- 452-454-472-474. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ470. && $$