667
FXUS62 KJAX 240515
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
115 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft prevail over the
area through tonight with a weak trough of low pressure looking
even weaker now over inland southeast GA. For the latter feature
over southeast GA, shower chances appear small enough in the
guidance and per satellite imagery to keep chances less than 15
percent. Otherwise, warm and dry conditions prevail through
tonight with patchy fog possible after around 3-4 AM until 8 AM.
Low level winds a bit higher early Tuesday morning may prevent
more widespread fog developing and warm temps aloft. Min temps in
the upper 60s to lower 70s expected, slightly above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Initially dry weather on Tuesday will give way to more moist
conditions by midweek as high pressure continues moving eastward
and prevailing flow shifts about to become more out of the south
southwest, resulting in increased chances for scattered showers
and storms over the forecast area with developments building from
south to north as Wednesday progresses. Daily high temperatures
will begin to decrease during this period as cloud cover and
precipitation increases with max temps dropping out of the lower
90s down into the upper 80s by midweek. Overnight low temperatures
will drop down into the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is currently moving over the
Northwestern Caribbean with further intensification anticipated as
is it makes its way northward towards the Gulf of Mexico. Current
forecasted path has the disturbance moving into western and
northwestern Florida by Thursday and Friday, with heavy rains and
storms building across the forecast area into early Thursday
morning with strong winds and tornado development as the primary
threats associated with the system. Current forecasts have the
tropical system moving north of the region by this weekend with
prevailing flow shifting to become more out of the south and
southwest before the beginning of next week. Daily high
temperatures will trend above the seasonal average this week with
max temps expected to reach into the upper 80s and possibly the
lower 90s.

Monitor official tropical forecasts from the National Hurricane Center
at hurricanes.gov and local emergency management officials.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 115 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Light variable winds with VFR conditions for the next few hours
for coastal sites. Inland areas will begin to see formation of
patchy fog during the predawn hours and clearing by 13Z. East-
southeasterly winds will redevelop by 15Z with speeds from 5-10
kts. Winds will again begin to wane by 00Z on Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Light east to southeast winds at 5-10 kt over area waters at this
time with seas of 2-4 ft with dominant periods of about 10
seconds. Southeast winds will gradually increase on Tuesday but
more markedly on Wednesday with rapidly deteriorating conditions.
Small Craft Advisory conditions develop late Wed. As Potential
Tropical Cyclone 9 heads into the gulf on Wed morning, winds will
continue to strengthen with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Thursday and continue into Thursday night. There is still
uncertainty in the scale, intensity, and track of the tropical
system as it develops. All of those factors will influence the
local coastal water conditions. Some gradual improvement on Friday
as the system pulls away to the north. A trough may linger over
the region Friday night into the weekend with winds and seas below
small craft advisory levels.

RIP CURRENTS...Moderate risk of rip currents continues this aftn
with surf of about 2-3 ft. Building breakers (3-5 feet) and
increasing southeast flow on Wednesday enhances risk to *High*
levels for at least NE FL beaches. Dangerous surf conditions are
likely Thursday as influences from tropical system are most likely
to begin.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 240 PM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Action to minor tidal flooding continues within the St Johns
River basin through mid week before influences from potential
tropical cyclone 9 tracking northward across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico begin. Current forecast track shows the system moving
northward to the FL panhandle by Thu into early Friday morning.
There is uncertainty on the track and intensity but the system is
fairly large. We could be looking at tidal levels back into Minor
or low-end Moderate flood at times of high tide along the Atlantic
coast by Thursday evening. Given the current elevated tides
already ongoing in the St Johns River, the potential for Moderate
Flooding and impacts are possible during at least Thursday and
Friday high tides.

Preparations should be considered for low-lying areas along the
St Johns River, especially in the Downtown Jacksonville, San
Marco, & Riverside areas along with other flood prone locations in
the upper St Johns in Clay, St Johns, and Putnam counties.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  91  70  87  72 /   0   0  20  40
SSI  86  76  85  76 /   0  10  10  30
JAX  89  74  88  76 /   0  10  20  50
SGJ  88  76  87  76 /   0  10  30  50
GNV  91  72  89  74 /   0  10  40  50
OCF  93  74  90  76 /   0  10  50  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ033-038-
     125-132-137-225-325.

GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$