Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL
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205 FXUS62 KJAX 070049 AFDJAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 849 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 845 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf Have trended POPs down for rest of tonight with strongest and convective activity peaking between about 5-7 pm today. For rest of tonight, mainly anticipate isolated shower or storm at best as a prefrontal trough moves southeast into the forecast area. Have added some very low POPs overnight due to the sfc trough. As far as Friday, guidance suggests isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible during late morning and afternoon, but not as much as NBM forecasts. Therefore, have trended POPs down slightly for this update. Not much change in the forecast high temps with mid 90s likely again with heat indices to about 100-105. So near record heat expected. For the marine forecast, forecast was on track with some minor adjustments for the winds and seas. Have headlined small craft exercise caution for 15-20 kt southerly winds with pretty good agreement most of the guidance. Winds should veer to the southwest and slowly ease back down to about 10-15 kt or 15 kt by 4-5 AM. Seas have not responded as of yet to the breezier winds, but should rise at least 1-2 ft over the next few hours. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 258 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The near breezy Southwest surface flow at 10-15G20-25 mph will continue to keep the East Coast sea breeze front pinned close to the coast through most of the afternoon and still expect very hot temps into the mid/upper 90s with peak heat indices around 105F across NE FL and in the 100-105F range across SE GA. Late afternoon storms should begin to initiate on the East Coast sea breeze in the 3-6pm time frame along the I-95 corridor from Jacksonville southward to St. Augustine/Palm Coast and expect these to become scattered to numerous with isolated strong to severe storms with gusty winds to 40-60 mph as the main threat, although expect the usual frequent lightning, small hail and heavy rainfall potential with this activity as well as it lingers through sunset and slowly pushes into the Atlantic Coastal waters. Otherwise some pre-frontal isolated to widely scattered showers/storms should break out this afternoon and evening across SE GA and inland NE FL near the Suwannee River Valley and linger until later in the evening, ending around midnight, although this activity will not be as intense as the East Coast storms, a few strong storms with gusty winds of 40-50 mph will be possible. By the overnight hours, the weakening frontal boundary over the SE US will continue to drift closer to the local area and should keep Southwest flow elevated enough to prevent much in the way of any fog formation, but also the increased SW flow will develop some shower/storm activity over the NE Gulf after midnight which may push inland to the Big Bend region, but for now not expecting this activity to reach the I-75 corridor of inland NE FL at this time around sunrise. There also could be a few pre-frontal showers across inland SE GA during the overnight hours, but rainfall chances with this activity is expected to remain below 20 percent at this time. Otherwise the SW flow will continue above normal temps with lows only falling into the lower to middle 70s. && .SHORT TERM... (Friday through Sunday night) Issued at 258 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Friday, a secondary shortwave will move in from the NW along the base of a southern stream mid level trough over the southern half of the east coast of the U.S. and bring in drier air and northwest flow aloft along and behind a surface cold front sinking into SE GA. Less coverage of showers and T`storms will result north of the FL/GA state line while more coverage will focus along I-95 and US17 corridors of NE FL as southwest winds 10-15 mph pin the Atlantic seabreeze near the coast. High temperatures will be only a notch cooler compared to Thursday with mid 90s for most and low 90s along the coast. Saturday, broad ridging aloft will stretch from the NW Gulf coast east into the FL panhandle and eastern Gulf of Mexico with a weak surface ridge over the upper TN river valley sliding into the southern Appalachians. Light northwest winds will be in place over our area with dry, light northwest flow aloft and sunny skies that will allow highs to reach the mid 90s south of Waycross, upper 90s over north central FL with low 90s closer to the Altamaha river and near 90 degrees along the coast. Lower dewpoints will spill into the mid/upper 50s in SE GA, but moderate into the 60s along the FL/GA state line and upper 60s to low 70s along the coast and over north central FL closer to the stalled frontal boundary, lowering heat index values closer to the actual temperature except for more southern areas well south of I-10. Sunday, the upper ridge will shift eastward from Gulf of Mexico to the FL peninsula as a broad longwave trough sinks south from the Great Lakes/New England towards the OH river valley and into the central Appalachians. This will increase heights locally and along with westerly winds ahead of a cold front approaching from the NW will create very hot temperatures in the upper 90s for most of the area even to the coast with isolated readings around 100 degrees from along US17 to along the I-95 corridor due to the Atlantic seabreeze confined near the immediate coast. Heat index values will climb to 100-105 as dewpoints also rise a bit compared to Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Thursday) Issued at 258 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The period will begin with mid to upper level troughing extending south down the spine of the Appalachians into the southeast coast and support a cold front entering SE GA by late in the day. As the mid to upper level trough starts to exit east from the eastern seaboard on Tuesday, it will remove the parent support for the cold front and allow it to stall across NE FL through much of next week. Coverage of showers and Thunderstorms will increase from scattered coverage Monday (30-50%) to numerous to widespread range (60-80%) as convergence along the remaining front, merging seabreeze interactions and high moisture over the region in a west to SW flow regime all contribute to higher storm chances. This pattern will increase potential for locally heavy rainfall where storms form, but still too early for exact amounts. Temperatures will begin on the hot side Monday in the mid to upper 90s, then cool towards normal highs in 90-92 degree range inland and the upper 80s at the coast. Lows will begin above normal in the low to mid 70s Monday morning and trend down into the upper 60s inland and the low to mid/70s at the coast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 825 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Scattered clouds around 7 kft for this evening with a very isolated shower possible near the TAF sites but overall prevailing VFR conditions expected overnight. Some MVFR vsby possible for VQQ, as usual. For Friday, low-end rain chances and for now just have advertised PROB30 group for SGJ as sea breeze and southwest- west flow produce some scattered convection. Too low confidence to include precip in other TAFs. Subsequent TAFs can refine any mention of convection, which again looks scattered at best, if not isolated. Sfc winds will be light south tonight and shift to more southwest overnight and weaken. Southwest-west wind increase Friday morning to near 10 kt, with sea breeze anticipated for SGJ and SSI during the aftn. && .MARINE... Issued at 258 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Breezy southerly winds will develop across the waters ahead of an approaching cool front set to arrive on Friday. The sea breeze will be pinned at the beach this afternoon, enhancing thunderstorm chances in the nearshore waters through the evening. The aforementioned front will push into the waters Saturday and stall before dissipating through Sunday. Winds will turn offshore once again early next week as another cool front approaches from the north and this front may end up stalling across the local waters through the middle of next week. Rip Currents: Moderate risk of rip currents in effect for NE FL beaches with a low risk for SE GA beaches through Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 258 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The increasing mixing heights and transport winds will create high daytime dispersions for most locations away from the coast Friday as a cold front sinks into the area late in the day. After the cold front passes just south of the area Saturday, min RH values will lower to near critical levels as low as 25-30 percent inland this weekend. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 825 PM EDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Record high temperatures at our designated climate sites on Friday: June 7 ----------- Jacksonville 100/1993 Gainesville 99/1985 Alma, GA 98/1993 Craig Airport 96/1985 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 72 94 69 93 / 20 20 10 0 SSI 75 92 74 88 / 20 30 20 0 JAX 72 96 73 95 / 20 40 20 10 SGJ 73 95 74 93 / 20 40 30 10 GNV 71 94 72 97 / 10 40 10 10 OCF 71 95 73 97 / 20 40 10 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. && $$