650
FXUS62 KJAX 261825
AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
225 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Light southerly flow has allowed for the Gulf coast sea-breeze to
make its way inland, creating scattered rain and thunderstorms to
pop up area wide. The main hazards from theses storms will be
gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall. Convection will begin to
die down after sunset, clearing out around 10pm. Inland
temperatures are in the upper 90s for SE GA and mid to upper 90s
for NE FL with slightly cooler temperatures along the coast.
Overnight temperatures will be in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Unusually hot and humid conditions for late June will stick around
through Friday with afternoon convection firing along the sea
breezes. Fairly deep southwesterly flow will be predominant amid a
deamplifying upper trough that will eventually be sheared being
sandwiched between two prominent upper ridges, one to the south and
another over the Southern Plains. Under this regime, a the Gulf sea
breeze will be dominant, likely kicking off an early bout of
convection through the late morning and early afternoon as it races
across to the northeast and collides with the pinned Atlantic sea
breeze each day. Weakening flow by Friday will allow a bit more
inland penetration of the Atlantic sea breeze realigning the
corridor of likely PoPs a bit further inland along and west of the I-
95. Main change between today and the Thursday/Friday period will be
a plume of moisture renegergizing PWATs to 2"+. Given this moisture
surge, shower and storm coverage will become numerous as sea breeze
and outflows interact during the afternoons. Convection will be
mainly diurnal in nature but a few peristent showers may push later
into the evening along a fizziling boundary laying across portions
of SE GA. Concerning storm hazards will be downburst winds, mostly
in the 30-50 mph neighborhood, and heavy downpours and localized
flooding concerns.

Temperatures will be hot with peak heat index values in the 103-109
degree range each day. The hottest areas will be right along the
coast where the sea breeze push could usher in dewpoints closer to
80F. Lows will be fairly balmy each night, hovering the mid/upper
70s to 80 along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Diurnal convection, dominanted by sea breezes and their
interactions, continues through the weekend. Weakening flow will
promote an inland push of both the Atlantic and Gulf sea breeze,
reducing storm chances for coastal zones over the weekend. Wet
period will continue into early next week but as upper ridging
gradually builds from the west and a shortwave attempts to ride
along its periphery and into the region. Guidance is maintain and
eastelry wave tracking across the southern Gulf and western
Carribean next week, which may also boost shower and storm chances
next week amid a well moistened profile. Abnormally hot and humid
conditions remain entrenched and will not budge through next week
with potential for Excessive Heat headlines, not unreasonable amid
the lengthy stretch of heat.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Expect VFR conditions outside of thunderstorm activity. Scattered
rain and thunderstorms at TAF sites today dying down around
22-00Z and clearing out overnight. Brief drops in visibility due
to downpours with gusty and erratic winds will be possible with
thunderstorms. Another round of showers and storms are expected
to start up around 18-19Z. Winds will be mainly out of the
southwest inland with winds along the coast from the south-
southeast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

High pressure ridging over the area with fairly consistent
troughing will create winds predominately from the southwest in
the mornings and overnight and then shifting to south-
southeasterly in the afternoons as the sea-breeze makes its way
onshore. Daily afternoon showers and storms are possible over the
local waters into the weekend that could linger into the evening
hours.

Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk today for NE FL and SE GA
beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  95  74  94 /  10  60  30  50
SSI  77  94  78  92 /  20  50  30  50
JAX  74  96  76  96 /  20  60  20  60
SGJ  76  96  77  94 /  30  60  20  60
GNV  73  94  74  94 /  30  60  10  60
OCF  76  93  76  94 /  20  70  20  60

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ021-024-033-120-
     124-125-132-133-220-225-232-325-425.

GA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ153-154-162-165-
     166.

AM...None.
&&

$$