Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
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658 FXUS63 KJKL 140700 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 300 AM EDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A weak cold front brings a low chance (10-30%) for a shower or thunderstorm on Friday into Friday evening. - Hot and uncomfortable weather builds through this weekend, with highs in low to mid 90s and heat indices peaking out around 100 degrees in some locations each afternoon from Sunday through Wednesday. - Disorganized afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible from Monday onward. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1142 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2024 Touched up the forecast a little bit to account for current trends across the area. Also, increase overnight temperatures a degree or two to account for the increasing cloud cover moving southeast. The increasing clouds overnight could limit the amount of radiational cooling across the area thus warmer temperatures. Lastly, updated text and radio products to reflect the changes. Grids have been saved and sent. UPDATE Issued at 721 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2024 Forecast remains on track. Blended latest observations into grids to fine tune the temperature and dew point diurnal curves. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night) Issued at 440 PM EDT THU JUN 13 2024 Another classic mid-June day has unfolded across eastern Kentucky today with thermometer readings ranging from the mid 80s in the Coalfield valleys to the upper 60s atop Big Black Mountain 20z. Dew points are moderate, generally lower to middle 60s at most locations. Also, the cumulus field from earlier in the afternoon is quickly fading as diurnal heating wanes. The latest 500H analysis shows northwest mid-level flow from the Canadian Prairies into the Ohio Valley with an embedded shortwave trough moving over the Upper Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure ridging extends across the Southeast US from a high over the Western Atlantic. Meanwhile, a cold front trails from low pressure over western Quebec to near/over Sault Ste Marie and then south near Chicago and then west southwest into Nebraska. The models are in good agreement through the short-term, showing the high pressure departing to our east tonight as the upper level shortwave troughing scoots toward the Northeast US and drags the cold front into the Lower Ohio Valley. Convection developing ahead of this boundary over southeast Iowa/northern Missouri/northern Illinois is expected trek east southeast overnight and largely dissipate due to lack of instability as it moves up the Ohio Valley early Friday morning. There is a small chance (up to 20%) that locations north of I-64 could see a brief sprinkle or shower with the remnants of this convection during the morning hours, though a period of thicker cloud cover is more likely. Otherwise, expect an extensive cumulus field to develop again on during the day on Friday, with a few of the updrafts evolving into showers or thunderstorms (10 to 30% chance) by afternoon ahead of a subtle mid-level disturbance. Later Friday night, the actual cold front sags into and through eastern Kentucky; but with the upper level forcing largely remaining well north of the forecast area, expect only small shower chances (10-20%) to linger into the nighttime hours. Temperatures will run above normal through the period with forecast highs in the mid to upper 80s on Friday and lows in the mid 50s, coldest northern valleys, to the mid 60s, warmest southern ridges, on both tonight and Friday night. Valley fog is expected in the typically prone locations tonight. Anticipate minimal fog coverage on Friday night, especially at locations that remain dry, since weak dry air advection will be ongoing. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 300 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2024 The long term period begins Saturday night with an upper high rapidly strengthening over the Southern Appalachians through early Monday, then moving to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US through mid- week before moving into the western Atlantic Ocean toward the end of the week. Meanwhile, the jet stream remains well north of eastern Kentucky through the period, keeping active weather far removed from the area. Much of the period will be hot and dry, with the best chances for isolated disorganized showers and storms coming each of Monday through Thursday afternoons when the area resides more under the periphery of the unusually strong upper ridge over the Northeast US. The heat will be the big story, with highs well into the 90s and lows in the 60s to lower 70s from Sunday onward. Heat indices will approach 100 degrees each day from Sunday onward as well, with Monday and Tuesday most likely to be the hottest days with a few indices exceeding 100 degrees but likely remaining below Heat Advisory criteria of 105 degrees. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period as high pressure will largely exist across the region. However, a passing disturbance could bring a shower or thunderstorm through the Friday evening. Confidence in precipitation chances and coverage are very low; therefore, opted to keep out of the TAF but isolated showers and storms will be possible through 00Z/Saturday. Light and variable winds will persist through the TAF period but gusty outflows could exist where thunderstorm activity is present. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...VORST SHORT TERM...GEERTSON LONG TERM...CMC AVIATION...VORST