Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
476 FXUS62 KKEY 231417 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1017 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 KBYX radar shows isolated showers throughout the Keys, especially over the marine area moving to the west at 5 to 10 knots. GOES 16 Visible satellite imagery shows mostly cumulus clouds with stratocumulus associated with the showers. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid to upper 80s with dew points in the mid 70s. Weak high pressure remains in place at the surface across the Eastern Seaboard with a developing tropical low pressure system over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. As a result, marine platforms are observing northeast to east breezes near 10 knots with Island Chain communities observing 5 to 10 mph. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The 12z morning sounding shows a very dry atmospheric profile from approximately 900 mb to the top of the atmosphere with a shallow moist layer present between 950 mb to 900 mb. The PWAT value measured came in at 1.51 inches which is right at the 25% percentile for the date. The CAPE value measured is actually quite low compared to previous days coming in at 500 J/kg. Therefore, expect mostly showers due to the dry air aloft and the showers entraining this dry air weakening them and preventing them from becoming thunderstorms. Due to this, no changes expected to the ongoing forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 There are currently no watches, warnings or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, gentle easterly flow across the Keys coastal waters this afternoon will steadily increase tonight and Tuesday, as high pressure builds along the Eastern Seaboard, and a tropical low develops in the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Heading through the middle and later part of the week, the forecast will depend on the development and movement of this low. At this time, we expect fresh to strong east to southeast breezes to develop late Tuesday, with strong southeast winds peaking Wednesday night into Thursday as the tropical system moves northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The strongest winds and highest seas are expected over western sections of the Keys waters. Mariners should continue to closely monitor the latest forecast updates during the next few days. .COASTAL FLOOD... A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for all of the Keys island chain, as above normal tides continue. Boaters can expect less clearance under fixed bridges, especially during the hours around high tide. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today. While a shower cannot be ruled out at either terminal today, high uncertainty in exact timing and location of rain will keep mention out of either TAF for now. Near surface winds will be out of the northeast to east at 5 to 10 knots becoming more easterly and increasing to near 10 knots throughout the day. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1931, the daily record rainfall of 2.10" was recorded in Key West. Precipitation records for Key West date back to 1871. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest