Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
917 FXUS62 KKEY 270803 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 403 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 405 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Deep layers of moisture remain over the Florida Keys, but a broad region of ridging across Cuba and Hispaniola limited shower formation yesterday across the Florida Straits. Well-developed cloud lines failed to initiate near the island chain in the late afternoon as a mixture of drier air in the 600-300 mb layers and regions of weak subsidence derived by CIMSS satellite analyses served to stifle shower growth. The environment will become less favorable for a reverse cloud line today as the low to mid level ridge shifts north, slackening winds to light breezes and shifting winds from southwesterly to southeasterly. A stagnant weather pattern of light near surface winds and upper altitude subsidence will persist through Saturday while a col region lingers over the Florida Keys nearshore waters. A burst of moisture could return on Sunday in concert with sustained easterly winds. The burst of moisture will be short lived, as a Saharan Air Layer plume may reach Keys waters by Tuesday night to Wednesday. High temperatures will remain near 90 throughout the week with dew points in the mid to upper 70s. In spite of the drier air above 700 mb, and even a brief SAL, summer mugginess will remain over the Keys. The greatest uncertainties relate to when winds shift to easterlies over the weekend, formation and movement of local boundaries across the Keys, and how far north the low-to-mid level ridge moves. && .MARINE... Issued at 405 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 A weak ridge axis extending from the western Atlantic over the Straits of Florida will cause light to gentle breezes across Keys waters through tonight. Breezes may become variable during this period. By Friday, the ridge will shift north towards the Florida Peninsula and allow breezes to gradually back to southeasterlies by Friday night and easterlies on Saturday. High pressure rebuilding off the east coast over the weekend will build gentle to moderate breezes across the Keys waters. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 405 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the TAF period. A few showers in the Straits of Florida along a boundary are currently drifting northeastward and could possibly affect the terminals later this morning, so will continue to monitor this activity and amend as necessary. For later today, surface winds will be more south southwest today, however, a reverse cloud line still cannot be ruled out. While VCSH is currently not in either TAF, it may need to be added, especially at MTH, to account for any cloud line activity. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1961, the daily record rainfall of 3.30" was recorded in Key West. Rainfall records date back to 1871. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 90 82 92 84 / 20 20 30 30 Marathon 89 81 91 83 / 20 20 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....NB Data Acquisition.....NB Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest