Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
024 FXUS62 KKEY 240227 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1027 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1027 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 KBYX is currently detecting scattered showers across the Florida Keys forecast area this evening. Over the past few hours, there has been little, if any, lightning strikes within these showers. Echo tops have generally been below 30 kft, aside from a few overachievers. With this in mind, the lack of lightning is unsurprising. Looking at the 00Z sounding, the wind profile does not have any good discernible pattern veering/backing due to the light winds through the majority of the atmosphere, so despite the above average PW and the ample CAPE coupled with the minimal inhibition, showers have not really been able to sustain themselves very well for the most part. This is all despite the mid to upper-level low over the southwestern Atlantic that is providing some divergence aloft. High pressure in the western North Atlantic is extending across the Florida Peninsula and providing the Keys with gentle to moderate east to southeast breezes. Temperatures are in the lower 80s and dew points are steadily in the mid 70s. Tonight`s forecast is proving to be tricky. While there are some boundaries still floating around, they are not as abundant as they were last night. With deep tropical moisture still spread across the area, scattered activity definitely remains plausible, however, the extent of the coverage overnight is questionable. The main issue will be the triggering mechanism. Guidance is suggesting another decrease in winds over the next few hours as the ridge axis sinks slightly southward, which generally isn`t as favorable for shower development. A few of the current showers may kick off some boundaries, which could induce further development, but there remains a decent amount of uncertainty for the next 8 hours. Hi-res models are having a hard time with initialization, thus, are all over the place from run to run. Have decided to drop PoPs to high chance down from the likely category, despite the overall favorable environment. Have also decided to nudge the chance of thunderstorms down to slight due to the considerable lack of deep convection that we have been experiencing. Otherwise, no changes were necessary to the forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1027 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure over the western Atlantic and low pressure over the Bay of Campeche will maintain light to gentle east to southeast breezes through Monday evening. The western Atlantic ridge will settle southward into the Florida Straits during the middle and latter part of the week, with light southwest to west breezes prevailing over the Keys waters. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1027 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Scattered showers have moved north to northwest of both terminals at this time, so have decided to remove VCSH through the early morning hours tomorrow. There is some uncertainty in the exact timing that shower activity will near the terminals again, so the timing may need to be adjusted in further TAF updates. Tomorrow looks to be another wet day, so TEMPOs will likely be required for sub-VFR conditions within passing convection. Outside of this convection, southeast winds will decrease tonight to 5 to 10 knots and shift to the east to southeast by sunrise. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2023, the daily record high temperature of 94F and the daily record warm low temperature of 85F were both recorded in Marathon. Temperature records date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 79 88 80 89 / 60 60 40 50 Marathon 79 89 80 89 / 60 60 40 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...NB Aviation/Nowcasts....NB Data Acquisition.....DP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest