842
FXUS62 KKEY 241439
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1039 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1039 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Mostly quiet radar across the Florida Keys and surrounding waters
for the start of today. Although it is currently not very active,
synoptically the atmosphere is very capable of producing and
reigniting, as seen on CIMSS vorticity a vort-max has drifted
over Cuba at the 850 mb level and MIMIC precipitable water shows
more moisture moving into the area from over the Bahamas.
Therefore, radar is starting to pick up on the outskirts of our
CWA moving this way. With the lack of flow we have (steering flow
from this morning`s 12Z sounding was near 2 knots) it has been a
struggle to get convection, but once this extra push of moisture
arrives activity should pick back up. Have left the 60% PoPs alone
for today for that reason, and no other changes to the forecast
are necessary at this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1039 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the
Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure over the western
Atlantic and low pressure over the Bay of Campeche will maintain
gentle east to southeast breezes through tonight. The western
Atlantic ridge will settle southward into the Florida Straits from
Tuesday through Thursday, with light southwest to west breezes
prevailing over the Keys waters. The ridge will shift back
northward late this week, allowing light to gentle southeast
breezes to resume.

&&

.AVIATION...
(15Z TAFS)
Issued at 1039 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

The lull in convective activity for much of the late overnight and
early morning hours appears to quickly be coming to an end for the
Florida Keys terminals. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to blossom over the next several hours, lasting through
much of the evening. TAFs have been updated to reflect this
evolution, with additional TAF amendments to account for more
specific impacts to sub-VFR VIS and CIGs likely required. Outside of
convection, near surface winds will be from the east to southeast at
4 to 7 knots, veering to the south to southwest after 06z tonight.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...AP
Aviation/Nowcasts....BT
Data Acquisition.....BT

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