Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
188 FXUS62 KKEY 231847 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 247 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Although there is currently a lull in convection, deep tropical moisture continues to dominate our region. This morning`s KEY 12z sounding observing 2.17 inches of precipitable water which is above the 90 percentile according to SPC climo values for today. MIMIC precipitable water verifies our sounding represents the whole area showing high PWAT values surrounding the CWA. Above normal rain chances will continue as long as the moisture sticks around as well as the trough aloft that has been lingering over Florida. Have elected to slightly increase PoPs for tonight and Monday due to the setup being very similar to yesterday and this morning. Guidance is suggesting PoPs should be increased more but 60% seems appropriate for the time being. Into the middle to latter part of this week the Atlantic high pressure will build in and with the associated mid-level ridging, we will see a slackening of winds, and moistures return to near normal. Therefore, PoPs will return to near climo for this time of year. Besides the uptick in PoPs for tonight and Monday, no significant chances have been made to the forecast package. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories currently in effect for the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure over the western Atlantic and low pressure over the Bay of Campeche will maintain light to gentle east to southeast breezes through Monday evening. The western Atlantic ridge will settle southward into the Florida Straits during the middle and latter part of the week, with light southwest to west breezes prevailing over the Keys waters. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A lull in convection for the island terminals is expected through at least 00z this evening. Thereafter, recharging of the atmosphere by late this afternoon or evening warrants inclusion of another extended period of VCSH in the TAFs. Uncertainty for the timing and location of the next round of convection tonight is quite high, and short-term amendments will be issued as needed based on radar trends. Near surface winds will generally be from the east to southeast at 6 to 10 knots. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest