Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
825 FXUS62 KKEY 121912 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 312 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Surface analysis places a weak area of high pressure extending over much of the North Atlantic, with a stubborn stationary front draped over northern Florida. The front coupled with fresh southerly flow has promoted very heavy rainfall over much of South Florida. Closer to home in the Florida Keys, we have experienced a lull in activity for much of the daytime hours. This lull may be quickly coming to an end, with KBYX Doppler radar detecting showers starting to bubble in the distant Straits of Florida. Skies are mostly cloudy across the island chain. Despite the cloud cover, tropical steering flow is keeping it very soupy outside, with dew points hovering near 80F. For this evening and tonight, an uncapped environment, coupled with mixed-layer instability, no inhibition, decent low-level veering, and a saturated environment should allow scattered showers and thunderstorms to proliferate over the next several hours, continuing for much of the overnight period. Virtually all convective-allowing model (CAM) guidance supports this evolution, although varying solutions in terms of convective triggering off Cuba. Based on current radar trends, widespread coverage over the island chain by late evening seems to be the best bet for now. The stationary front will not move much over the next couple of days, although there is at least some ensemble support to suggest it may drift slightly southward by Thursday afternoon. After a mainly dry morning for the Keys expected again on Thursday, showers and thunderstorms should once again develop, with bouts of widespread convection likely continuing through Friday. Inherited likely PoPs are maintained for these periods. There is increasing support that the conveyor belt of deep tropical moisture will finally wane over the weekend, and an area of high pressure will build across the Northeast, then slide eastward into the western North Atlantic. This will promote an extended period of freshened easterly breezes. With this setup, mainly dry conditions can be expected, although passing showers certainly cannot be ruled out. Continuing to advertise just above normal rain chances for this extended period. With increased sunshine, seasonally warm temperatures are expected, with highs near 90F, and lows in the lower 80s. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity over the next several hours. Heavy rainfall, gusty winds and confused seas, and cloud to surface lightning strikes will be possible with any stronger storm. From synopsis, the pattern for the remainder the week will feature weak high pressure over the western North Atlantic and a frontal boundary stalled over northern Florida. However, the main weather maker will be a large cyclonic system centered over Central America. Mainly moderate breezes and an extended period of unsettled weather featuring thundery squalls will persist this tonight through Friday night. Rain and thunder chances will decrease gradually starting Saturday. Breezes will freshen by Saturday night, with moderate to fresh easterly breezes expected for late in the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 300 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024 VFR conditions will prevail at EYW and MTH for the next few hours. Thereafter, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to pick up later this evening and move through the area causing potential IFR conditions. For the time being, VCSH is included but as timing becomes more nailed down for exact airport impacts, TEMPOS will be included. Near surface winds will be southerly at 10 to 15 knots with occasional gusts of near 20 knots, but gusts in passing showers could near 30 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 89 78 88 78 / 70 70 70 70 Marathon 89 78 88 78 / 70 70 70 70 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for FLZ076>078. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....11 Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest