Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
851 FXUS62 KKEY 171914 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 314 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 A very wet weather pattern remains planted across the broader area. This is due to a stalled old frontal zone across the Florida Peninsula and a deep layered nearly cut off low centered over the southeastern United States. Precipitable water has been elevated across our area for a while and these features, if anything, are contributing to keeping the atmosphere wet. This mornings sounding also indicated ample CAPE. The lower tropospheric ridge is aligned near and just south of the Keys and is providing some lower level confluence. Perhaps the main negative for convective initiation is the lack of a well defined flow through the lowest levels. This is due to a weak low off the centered roughly over the Mid Atlantic. No significant changes are expected to the overall synoptic scale makeup. The environment will remain quite conducive for rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Will maintain likely pops for at least the next 24 hours. While there is some uncertainty, guidance has been hinting at the mid and upper level support will lessen and the lower levels will lose some confluence. For now, will maintain the transition to mid chance pops. Of note, is the old low near the Mid Atlantic will continue to meander off the coast and gradually strengthen and begin slipping southeast to southward as it interacts with the upper trough later in the week. All this may result in synoptic rain chances slipping due to the diminishing moisture and less forcing at both the lower and upper levels. However, it would better open the door for mainland activity moving south to southwestward into the Keys. && .MARINE... Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 A weak low pressure system will meander off the Atlantic coast over the next several of days. This low will then deepen as it interacts with an upper low as it meanders southeast to southward. As a result, the usual western flank of the Atlantic ridge will be disrupted, leading to light and often variable through the duration of the forecast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 300 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2024 Shower activity is starting to diminish at both EYW and MTH. VCSH shower is still included for the lingering showers but will be removed once those dissipate. Near surface winds will be east to southeast at 5 to 10 knots. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Coastal Flood Advisory FLZ076. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...11 Aviation/Nowcasts....AP Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest